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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (15448)	12/13/2008 7:56:30 AM
From: orkrious	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71463

I received a call this morning from a commodities broker who told me the Comex is alerting various futures firms about the potential of a squeeze on the December contract If there were going to be delivery problems and a call like that went out you'd think PoG would have been stronger yesterday.

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (15448)	12/13/2008 3:54:44 PM
From: gregor_us	3 Recommendations Respond to of 71463

Total outstanding government debt on Inauguration Day, 20 January 2000: 5,706,174,969,873.86 Total outstanding government debt Friday, 5 December 2008: 10,653,271,333,099.91 The big acceleration started in 2003, for obvious reasons. While the global margin call event and uber-deleveraging that has taken place in the last 6 months appears to be understood by many, I think it will take time to digest it. My view is that gold and oil in relationship to the USD were, in fact, only starting to get properly priced in 2007 and 2008, and now have fallen way, way back in value against the USD to inflation adjusted levels that recall earlier parts of the past 100 years. The dollar is buying too much gold. Gold in turn is buying too much oil. Something has to give. It appears that this week, Uncle Buck finally buckled. Final thought: the USD is potentially tracing out an analog to the 1985 high and subsequent 10 year downtrend. Starting with the 2002 high, the 2005 countertrend move higher matches nicely with the 1988 countertrend move higher. Now, the 2008 countertrend move higher matches even more nicely with the 1991 countertrend move higher. I'm not a huge believer in these analogs. But, I do find it interesting to see it playing out so far. stockcharts.com G My November note on the USD: Message 25156131