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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (100247)	12/14/2008 4:19:09 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't see where 1/4 would make much difference. T-bills are already at zero. There's plenty of money lying around, just no velocity. If I were Ben, I'd say some encouraging words and leave it at that.

To: TH who wrote (100247)	12/14/2008 5:37:10 PM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

seems like the actual fed funds rate is already between .1 and .2%....so not cutting 50 would be acting contrary to market, which fed has not done very much in the past..they tend to follow market. from John Mauldin this week: "Speaking of zero interest rates, the posted Fed funds rate may be at 1%, but the actual market is trading at very close to zero. That means that banks can get money that is effectively free. The Fed meets next week in what was supposed to be a one-day meeting but which has now been scheduled for two. Guess they think there is a little more to talk about. The Fed will cut rates next week. But with the effective real market rate now at zero, what difference does a cut make? I hope they do the right thing and go ahead and cut at least 75 basis points, if not more. That would stop the speculation and let them move on to quantitative easing and other allied policies, which we will explore in some future letter. Whether they should pursue some of the more radical policies is open for debate, but it is more important today for us to figure out what they are going to do and adjust our portfolios correctly than to debate policy." he is actually calling for 75 bp to make a better match between official rate and market. Robin

To: TH who wrote (100247)	12/15/2008 1:09:50 AM
From: pitbull_1_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Dosen't really matter imo.more important is the language they use re their actions to loosen the credit markets and slow the value declines.They gotta do something.Something that dosen't cause the conservative responsible to riot.Are they just gonna out and out purchase mortgages.What??.this rally is just a dead cat bounce.Wait until the rest of the losses come due for the alt-a and option arm mortgage that are going to begin resetting coming early next year and peak in late 2010 and last thru 2011.Another 1-1.5 trillion losses.Not to mention the end of next year the losses for the commercial real estate should begin to occur.

To: TH who wrote (100247)	12/15/2008 10:42:45 AM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The USD has been dropping like a fat rock, I'm assuming in anticipation of a deep cut in rates. As close as I can tell, an unholy amount of dollars have been printed up and passed around in currency swaps intended to support the USD. I almost wonder if the Fed might leave rates unchanged until at least the next meeting to slow the decline? There's a lot of pressure for the half point cut. I doubt it will be more than that. I think arguments could be made for leaving it unchanged or going with the quarter point you suggest.