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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (15580)	12/17/2008 11:07:50 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

Right. A hard recession for some time is inevitable. However, when you price 1 POS (spoos) in another POS (USD), the question becomes which POS drops faster. Then appears the illusion of a rally... or even a bull market, such as 2002-2007. -g- The real US GDP probably dropped during that period, since official inflation is a lie. In that sense, a real GDP drop lasting quite a few years defines depression. While the unemployment was not there, the USD was cut in half.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (15580)	12/17/2008 11:32:01 PM
From: Real Man	2 Recommendations Respond to of 71475

We have been living through Great Depression, take II, since Y2K, IMHO. The real US GDP has declined since then, pending official inflation lies, and is still dropping. You can sure feel it in your pocket, as folks salaries buy a lot less in 2008 than they did in 2000, which is why Shrub has such a low rating. The real inflation was probably close to 7-8%, although Williams puts it much higher, while the nominal growth was 5%. The US real GDP probably dropped every year. US declined from #1 on the list of countries, in terms of GDP per capita, to somewhere in the teens near Austria or Portugal. In some sense, this dollar rally and oil drop were a blessing, since they really increased the purchasing power of the dollar, albeit temporarily.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (15580)	12/19/2008 10:39:34 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

This is the only reason I expect spoos to go up, and I am only long spoos in a retirement account where I can't get long anything better. The Fed policy is hyperinflationary, period. I expect stunning upside commodity moves to materialize in 2009 and beyond. 200% wheat move in 2 months in early 2008 will look like a walk in the park in comparison, oil will exceed 2008 Summer high by a wide margin. 2001-2003 "reflation" is pale in comparison to what already has been done today, and that alone sent oil prices up 7-fold. What was done this year has a nasty smell of hyperinflation. Yes, that while everybody talks about deflation. The base chart is in the thread head.