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To: Road Walker who wrote (441185)12/18/2008 12:17:15 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1585036
 
Its not unusual at all. That was true in 1980; in 1990 and in 2000.

These price declines ARE very unusual. I think ou have to go back to the great depression to match them.


Not for a bubble. During the late 1980s, LA's median was around $400k......I am doing this from memory so these numbers may not be exact....by the end of the bubble bursting in 1992, the median was down around $230K. That was a 40% drop. Its not that unusual.

FLA hasn't experienced a bubble before.......so this kind of movement is unusual. However, its not unusual for a bubble.

John, housing sales were up YoY for the past two months in CA, FLA and one other state.

Sales, not prices, from very depressed levels.


Of course......the investors are buying the foreclosure properties, not the most expensive homes. A bottom has to be placed under the cheapest homes in the market before bottoms can be put under the more expensive homes. You build from the bottom up.

When do you think housing prices will bottom?

I have no idea. Prices usually bottom 6 months to a year after the housing market has bottomed, but there is no solid rule of thumb. Look......I am not saying things are better....they're not. What I am saying is that there are some very small signs of improvement......and that's what I look for when trying to determine when a housing bottom will occur.



To: Road Walker who wrote (441185)12/18/2008 12:24:34 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 1585036
 
Here's a recent article discussing what's happening in CA.

Home prices in California down 40 percent

Prices of homes in California are down more than 40 percent for their peak, dragged down by the large number of foreclosed homes on the market.

By Los Angeles Times and The Associated Press

With the price of Southern California homes down more than 40 percent from their peak, the housing market has now slid further than most economists expected.

The story was similar in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The median sales price for homes in Southern California fell to $300,000 in October, a level not seen since 2003 and a 41 percent drop from the peak price set in the spring and summer of 2007, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Prices were dragged down by the large number of foreclosed homes on the market: For the first time since the slump began, repossessed properties in October accounted for more than half of residences sold.

Low prices did drive sales up 56 percent from a year ago. But a market bottom remains elusive — and a rebound in prices is not on the horizon.

In Northern California, thousands of homebuyers around the San Francisco Bay Area kept snatching up foreclosed homes last month, dragging down the median home price by 41 percent from a year ago, according to MDA DataQuick.

The median home price in the nine-county region plunged to $375,000 in October, compared with $631,000 in the year-ago period.

Last month's median price was down 6.3 percent from September and nearly 44 percent from the peak median of $665,000 in the summer of 2007.

"The dramatic, near free-fall in the Bay Area's median sale price in recent months stems mainly from the shift toward more sales occurring in lower-cost inland markets," John Walsh, MDA DataQuick's president, said in a statement. "At the same time, the role of foreclosures continued to grow across the region, adding more downward pressure to the median."

Despite efforts by government, lenders and others to help strapped homeowners with mortgage payments, foreclosures have continued to rise in California, particularly in inland counties with metro areas such as Stockton, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino and Modesto.

Home sales in the San Francisco Bay Area climbed nearly 39 percent last month from a year ago to 7,613 and nearly 5 percent from September.

October's sales were the highest for any month since June 2007, when 7,964 homes were sold.

Once more, foreclosure resales accounted for a major slice of those sales — nearly 45 percent of the pre-owned homes sold last month. Most of those distressed sales took place in Contra Costa, Napa and Solano counties.

In pricier San Francisco County, where the median price slipped 12.1 percent to $699,000 from a year ago, sales plunged 21 percent.


Just a year ago, several market analysts interviewed by the Los Angeles Times predicted that Southern California home prices would drop 15 to 25 percent from their peak.

It took only until July for the median price to fall 25 percent below its 2007 peak of $505,000, and it has continued to fall since.

Barring a dramatic economic reversal, the median sales price is on track to slip below $300,000 when November sales are calculated next month.

Thomas Davidoff, a University of California, Berkeley, economist, said he and others underestimated the drop in value because it was tougher a year ago to know just how many people had mortgaged their homes for more than they could afford.

Those earlier forecasts proved off because "it was hard for people to get their arms around just how bad lending standards had gotten," Davidoff said.

During the real-estate bubble, banks and brokers offered mortgages requiring little or no money down, minimal proof of income and "teaser" mortgage rates that lowered initial monthly payments, but later jumped to a much-higher rate.

Last year, it was unclear how many of those loans would default. But much of that mystery has been solved by now, as massive numbers of homes have been repossessed.

In October 2007, 16 percent of the homes sold in Southern California had been foreclosed, compared with to 51 percent last month.

Mounting foreclosures flooded the market with discounted repossessed homes, further depressing home values.

The ripple effect from that put even more homeowners under water — owing more on their homes than they were worth — and led to more foreclosures.

Now, "we're probably seeing an overcorrection," in the most depressed areas, Davidoff said.

Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company

seattletimes.nwsource.com



To: Road Walker who wrote (441185)12/18/2008 12:29:34 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1585036
 
Agents tend to be bullish but I've heard the same thing from people not in the business.....a bottom may be as early as mid 2009.

In talking about real estate, you have to remember that you're in a state that is ground zero. I am not so I am going to have a very different perspective.

Many real-estate agents see bottom in early 2009, survey says

The traditionally brisk spring-summer homebuying season should help firm up the falling residential real-estate market, many real-estate agents feel.

By Andrea Jares
McClatchy Newspapers

FORT WORTH, Texas — More than half of real-estate agents who responded to a survey think the national real-estate market will hit bottom sometime in the beginning of 2009, according to the Campbell Communications marketing-research firm.

Fifty-two percent of agents said the country will see the bottom of the housing market in the first six months of 2009. An additional 7.7 percent said prices have already bottomed out, and 16.5 percent believed that the bottom will happen in 2010 or later.

"When you get to March, you're really entering into the spring-summer homebuying season, and that's when sales pick up," said Thomas Popik, who designed the survey, which Campbell Communications, based in Washington, D.C., released recently. The survey was conducted earlier this month. "I think a lot of them feel intuitively that as sales pick up, prices are also going to firm up or solidify at that point."

The survey of more than 2,500 real-estate agents also identified the three most resilient markets in the nation for selling homes.

"If we had to pick three states in the country that are large states and where property prices really haven't declined very much and employment has held up, the three states that would fit that criteria would be Texas, North Carolina and Washington state," Popik said.


The survey indicates the challenges buyers and sellers have in buying property.

Homebuyers are stymied by not being able to sell their current homes, by having difficulty getting financing and fearing that home prices will continue to fall, according to the national survey.

"People are waiting to hear that the market has hit bottom," according to a respondent in the survey. "They are afraid to purchase and then have their home value decline immediately by 10 percent or so based on what is happening to other properties in the neighborhood."

Sellers are also unrealistic about what their home will fetch on the market, pricing it well above the going rate.

"Competing foreclosures are a major problem for sellers to get the prices they need for their properties," one respondent said. "These are not necessarily high prices, but many times prices for the seller to just break even."

Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company

seattletimes.nwsource.com



To: Road Walker who wrote (441185)12/18/2008 12:33:16 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 1585036
 
Meanwhile its snowing again......and I will never get out of this house. Yuck!