Momentum builds for energy independence
Converging conditions could stoke sustained federal push for alternative fuels, greener cars
chicagotribune.com
By Jim Tankersley | Washington Bureau
December 16, 2008
Critics say Bush administration energy policy too heavily favored the oil industry and turned a blind eye to greenhouse gas emissions and the threat of global climate change. (David J. Phillip / AP 2007 / December 16, 2008)
WASHINGTON — Breaking America's foreign-oil addiction was all the rage on Capitol Hill when gas cost $4 a gallon. Now that it's under $2 and falling, history suggests the enthusiasm for alternative fuels and more-efficient cars will subside. It did that in the mid-1970s and again in the '80s and '90s.
But this time could be different. A confluence of factors that didn't exist or played lesser roles in previous "energy independence" efforts has congressional leaders and environmental groups thinking that major action to reduce oil imports and replace fossil fuels may still be possible. The new elements in the equation include increasing public anxiety over global warming, broad enthusiasm for making sure the coming stimulus package has a "green" tinge and repeated vows for action from President-elect Barack Obama.
Also this time, many consumers and oil company executives appear convinced it won't be long before high gas prices come back to stay.
"In the past, when the price of oil and gas have dropped, it has caused us to lose our focus" on energy independence, said Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), who heads the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. "I don't think that'll happen this time."
Recent opinion polls and exit surveys from the November election back him up, but perhaps nothing illustrates the change in attitudes better than a survey of 52 high-level oil and gas executives released last week by the auditing and consulting firm Deloitte.
It found that less than a quarter of those executives expect oil and gas to be Americans' cheapest energy source in 25 years, and three-quarters say it's a good idea for the country to turn away from fossil fuels for transportation.
That's a "sea shift" for the industry, said Joseph Stanislaw, a Deloitte senior adviser and longtime oil and gas analyst. "People are saying, prices go up and prices go down," he said, "but something's broken here, and we've got to fix it."
Americans have worried about their dependence on foreign oil since the early 1970s, when Arab oil producers stunned the developed world by halting oil shipments during the presidency of Richard Nixon. The result was soaring energy prices, long lines at gas stations and an "energy shock" to the economy it took years to recover from.
Today the United States imports nearly two-thirds its oil, a 50 percent increase from the Nixon years, even though every president in that time has pledged to wean the nation from foreign energy.
Obama, in announcing his energy policy team Monday, noted how presidents for decades had failed to curb the nation's oil addiction.
"This time has to be different," Obama said. "This time we cannot fail. Nor can we be lulled into complacency just because, for now, the price of gas has fallen below $4 a gallon."
Oil prices hit record heights over the summer, fueled in part by explosive demand in developing nations such as China and India. Both Obama and his GOP opponent, John McCain, promised ambitious plans to reduce oil use, and Americans cut back on driving.
Then the global economy slipped rapidly into recession, energy demand ebbed and prices sank again.
Instead of backing off his alternative energy push, though, Obama doubled down. Since the November election he has promised to make so-called green projects a cornerstone of the economic stimulus plan that will anchor his early agenda. And he repeatedly pledged swift action to curb greenhouse gas emissions and fight climate change, an issue heavily wrapped in the politics of oil.
Obama's concern over global warming is increasingly shared by voters. That's a big difference from the 1970s, said Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter, a Democrat who has urged Obama to focus heavily on energy alternatives. "We weren't paying attention to climate policy the way we are now," Ritter said.
Climate change has become "part and parcel" of federal energy policy, said Andy Karsner, a former assistant energy secretary in the Bush administration who is now at the non-profit Council on Competitiveness. "You will see climate, as an issue, embedded in the ongoing energy debate," he said.
Many Republicans warn that the economic downturn could make any climate change legislation—which analysts project would raise household costs—a tough sell.
Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.), who sits on two key energy committees, cautioned Obama to focus on plans to increase efficiency and boost alternative fuels, which would combat warming and oil dependence. "We ought to be looking for strategies that give us a dual benefit," he said.
Environmentalists say the opposite: that lower gas prices weaken the argument against a cap-and-trade plan for greenhouse gas emissions.
Lawmakers and analysts agree that even with cheaper gasoline, cash-strapped Americans aren't likely to immediately splurge on SUVs or resume the driving habits they learned to curb over the summer. They also agree that prices aren't likely to stay low for long. Once the world economy speeds up, oil demand almost certainly will surge again. As the International Energy Agency declared in a November report, "The era of cheap oil is over." |
