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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (84501)	12/19/2008 7:30:18 AM
From: clutterer	Respond to of 94695

Goldman, UBS, Deutsche Are Among Banks Lowered by S&P (Update1) Email \| Print \| A A A By Elena Logutenkova Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG are among 12 financial companies whose ratings or outlooks were cut by Standard & Poor’s, which cited increased risks for the whole banking industry. “The downgrades and revised outlooks reflect our view of the significant pressure on large complex financial institutions’ future performance due to increasing bank industry risk and the deepening global economic slowdown,” S&P said in a statement. Banks worldwide have reported more than $745 billion of writedowns and losses since the credit crisis began, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P said it expects banks to face more volatility in funding markets and a higher level of stress than in a “typical business-cycle trough.” “The macro outlook in the U.K. and U.S. banking sector has worsened materially,” said Sandy Chen, a London-based banking analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co. “They’re looking at the risk of what the combination of deleveraging and deflation could do to banks’ earnings.” Banking shares declined in European trading. UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, fell 3.5 percent by 12:52 p.m. in Zurich, while Deutsche Bank, the biggest German bank, dropped 1 percent in Frankfurt. The Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index slid 2.1 percent, bringing its decline this year to 66 percent. Goldman Cut Goldman earlier this week reported its first quarterly loss since the company went public in 1999. While the loss isn’t considered indicative of the bank’s profit potential, “the timing and extent of earnings recovery are currently highly uncertain,” S&P said. It cut the New York-based firm’s rating by two grades to A from AA- and kept a “negative” outlook. The same rating action was taken on Morgan Stanley Bank, a unit of New York-based Morgan Stanley. Citigroup Inc.’s Citibank N.A. unit was also cut by two levels to A+ from AA. Ratings on eight companies were lowered by one level, while London-based HSBC Holdings Plc had its outlook changed to “negative” with the AA- rating maintained. UBS’s writedowns and losses of $48.6 billion since the beginning of the credit crisis, the most of any European bank, reflect “larger risk concentrations and weaker risk management than we had previously perceived,” the rating company said. Next year the bank’s “performance will be relatively subdued.” Rating cuts come at a time when banks worldwide are forced to increasingly rely on their central banks for funding after the interbank lending market nearly ground to a halt this year. Zurich-based UBS had to accept a $59.2 billion government aid package in October to help it split off risky assets and get extra cash. The downgrades “will increase the price of interbank lending,” said Michael Trippitt, a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. “This is confirmation that in the corporate and commercial world life is going to get tougher.” Below is a table of rating and outlook changes, as provided by S&P. Bank New Rating Prior Rating Bank of America N.A. AA-/Negative/A-1+ AA/Watch Neg/A-1+ Barclays Bank PLC AA-/Negative/A-1+ AA/Watch Neg/A-1+ Citibank N.A. New York A+/Stable/A-1 AA/Watch Neg/A-1+ Credit Suisse A+/Stable/A-1 AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+ Deutsche Bank AG A+/Stable/A-1 AA-/Negative/A-1+ Goldman Sachs Group Inc.* A/Negative/A-1 AA-/Negative/A-1+ HSBC Holdings Plc AA-/Negative/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+ JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. AA-/Negative/A-1+ AA/Negative/A-1+ Morgan Stanley Bank, N.A. A/Negative/A-1 AA-/Negative/A-1+ Royal Bank of Scotland Plc A+/Stable/A-1 AA-/Stable/A-1+ UBS AG A+/Stable/A-1 AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+ Wells Fargo Bank N.A. AA+/Negative/A-1+ AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ *The Goldman Sachs ratings are the holding company ratings. Operating company ratings are typically one notch higher.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (84501)	12/19/2008 8:55:44 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Nah, it's just a pause before going higher. Druids will bid it up, watch VIX. Black-Scholes math will take care of things, it's only broken when there is no liquidity, and that is not the case right now. -g- We should be scared of inflation, since the Fed continues to throw tons of cash along with their printing press at these markets. Same old, they will do anything to prop failing derivatives mess instead of disarming the bomb. Very bad times ahead, but this bodes well for stocks, cause they are worth more than the Fed's dollars. The Fed has spoken, again, and the writing is on the wall - follow Jim Rogers. Commodities will again ouperform to the upside, and inflation moves of Fall 2007/Spring 2008 will seem like a walk in the park compared to what's coming. -ng-