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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (44122)	12/20/2008 5:04:35 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217743

<< I just continue to have the sense that the rest of the major economies which were so dependent upon exporting to the US will suffer more from American consumers going on a buying strike>> wrong expectation, because for the learned producer-saver-investor-merchants, the current monetary-financial-economic tsunami is an opportunity to learn by observation what fiat money inflation / deficit does not mater / wastrelism can do, to have a taste of the poison by 2nd order experience, to make adjustment in own affairs, and then, to move on. for spun-enriched usa consumers hogging the planet's resources, much as the single person at the merry banquet table choking on the stringy vegetable, te current wobble will likely prove to be an event leading on to the biblical end game, meaning dissipation, confiscation, redistribution, evaporation, desperation, revolution, ... zero-state monetary reset #1, 2, 3 ... and devolution, followed by the darkest interregnum. just a guess based on math, even if at zero interest rate.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (44122)	12/20/2008 6:04:02 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217743

Hawk, based on the assertion you posted with the link the USD had its reflex rally - since there was substantial de-leveraging and we do not know the ratios now. As a side comment the issue of leverage is irrelevant if all loans are paid the more important issue is the quality of loans in those bank portfolios and the manufacturing / raw material base of the companies that they are lending to them. For example Deutsche Bank has the backing of the German government if needed. Germany is a country living thrifty in relation to the US etc. Further I am not privy to their loan portfolio makeup and therefore only looking at the debt to equity ration would be misleading to anticipate profitability. The quality of the loans and other assets are the main concern for any lending institution. If 12% of the loan portfolio of Bank America will not perform and residual value is ZERO, then the low debt to equity will not save the bank as it will end up with negative equity <GGG> On the other hand if DB has a big chung of German Government debt, leveraged and hold to maturity is that riskier than holding on US GSA debt for example? - ( insured by US Treasury ) BWDIK Haim