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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: David A. Lethe who wrote (18090)10/23/1997 12:50:00 PM
From: vinod Khurana  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42771
 
Hong Kong meltdown sends global markets reeling

NEW YORK (DBC) -- U.S. shares were rocked Thursday afternoon, taking their cue from a meltdown in Hong Kong
shares and its resultant effect on global financial markets.

The selling in U.S. stocks was exceptionally broad-based, with losers trouncing winners by a 5-to-1 margin. Volume on
the floor of the New York Stock Exchange was extremely heavy.

Overseas, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index freefell more than 10 percent after tanking as much as 15 percent intraday.
The average has staggered nearly 25 percent in the last several days amid currency and interest rate turmoil. For full
story.

Meanwhile, Japan's 225-stock Nikkei index dove 3.0 percent and London's FTSE 100 index crumbled 3.6 percent.

At 12:06 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 144.15 points, or 1.8 percent, to 7890.06. The index
tumbled as much as 180 points by 10:07 a.m. ET.

Weakest sector of the U.S. market was that of technology, benchmark computer-related and semiconductor issues in
particular. Otherwise, some strength was seen in scattered consumer noncyclical names in addition to the gold-mining
group.

"If I held a stock index, I would be selling," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. "I
think [blue-chip] indexes have seen their high into 1998. What's going on is very bullish for gold, so I'd certainly buy
Newmont Mining or Homestake Mining. I would lighten up on the technology sector as I think this is not good news for
these stocks and I'd lighten up on the banks because I feel this may have repercussions for them."

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 1.5 percent, the New York Stock Exchange Composite sank 1.5 percent, and the
American Stock Exchange Composite lost 1.3 percent.

New York Stock Exchange losers blew away winners by 5 to 1.

On the Big Board floor, 312 million shares crossed the tape, 6 percent greater than Wednesday's pace at this time.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6 percent. Declining issues led advancers by 4 to 1 in the Nasdaq Stock Market. Volume
totaled 385 million shares.

"I think you stick to special situations and value stocks," Metz said. "I think the earnings momentum school is going to
have problems here. Frankly, I'd shop in the underowned mid-cap and small-cap universe. I believe the values lie in basic
resource issues. What's happening in southeast Asia is probably not terribly bullish for them, but I think they're cheap
enough, particularly the aluminum sector, which to me is compellingly attractive.

"In the small-cap sector, I like Genome Therapeutics, a biotech company that's big in cash and rather cheap at 9 3/8. I
think it's a very interesting speculation in the biotech area."

In earnings news, Xerox declined 1 1/4 to 86 1/8 after reporting third-quarter net of 88 cents a share, a penny above
most estimates.

Delta Air Lines Inc. said it earned $3.26 a share in its fiscal first quarter versus consensus expectations of $3.03. The
shares fell 1/8 to 106 5/8.

Southwest Airlines lost 7/8 to 35 despite beating most projections by two cents with its third-quarter results of 60 cents a
share.

Among widely-held computer-related issues, Dell Computer fell 3 to 96 1/8, Cisco Systems 2 to 82, Computer
Associates 2 3/8 to 78 3/8, Texas Instruments 5 to 120, Compaq Computer 2 to 71 7/8, Intel 1 5/8 to 82 3/8,
International Business Machines 2 3/8 to 102 3/4, and Microsoft 2 to 133 3/4.

Elsewhere in the technology complex, semiconductor manufacturing issues stumbled lower, not surprising given the
abnormal liquidation seen in recent sessions. Multipoint setbacks were recorded by SGS Thomson Microelectronics,
shedding 5 1/4 to 76 3/8; Kyocera Corp., 4 7/8 to 122 1/2; Quality Semiconductor, 4 11/16 to 8 7/16; Micrel Inc., 4
3/8 to 39 3/4; Jabil Circuit Inc., 3 to 50 3/4; ASE Test Ltd., 2 3/4 to 65; and Photronics Inc., 2 3/4 to 44 7/8.

Gold-mining stocks benefitted from the chaos in global markets. Yet the gains were unimpressive. Newmont Mining
Corp. improved 7/8 to 44 7/8, Ashanti Goldfield Co. 1/2 to 11 5/8, Getchell Gold Corp. 1/2 to 41, Placer Dome Inc.
7/16 to 19 1/4, Golden Star Resource Ltd. 3/8 to 6 3/4, and Barrick Gold Corp. 1/4 to 23 7/8.

U.S. BONDS:

Treasury bonds surged on a flight-to-quality rally Thursday as global market participants sought a friendly haven in the
midst of widespread turmoil in financial markets.

A plunging Hong Kong currency was the catalyst that sparked liquidation of stocks worldwide, with Hong Kong's Hang
Seng index cratering over 10 percent as a result.

The Federal Reserve issued a brief statement saying it is "monitoring developments" in global markets. Some believe the
Fed will be less inclined to ratchet short-term interest rates higher amid the turmoil.

On the economic front, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits increased
8,000 to 315,000 in the week ended Oct. 18. The figure compared with most forecasts of 305,000 claims.

At 10:30 a.m. ET, with federal funds at 5.50 percent, the Federal Reserve added funds to the banking system through
overnight system repurchase agreements.

The 30-year Treasury advanced 1 2/32, to yield 6.340 percent from Wednesday's 6.407 percent. The 10-year note
rose 20/32, to yield 6.042 percent. The short bill's discount rate fell 1 basis point to 4.99 percent.

In the mortgage-backed market, 30-year currents advanced 6/32.

COMMODITIES:

New York light sweet crude for December delivery advanced $0.01 to $21.43.

December gold rose $0.50 to $324.10.

CURRENCIES:

The dollar traded mixed versus the yen and d-mark.

Dollar/yen was quoted at 121.60 from Wednesday's 120.91.

Dollar/mark was at 1.7721 from 1.7860.



To: David A. Lethe who wrote (18090)10/23/1997 3:15:00 PM
From: BP Ritchie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42771
 
I think the competition was Banyan, MicroSoft, ArtiSoft, etc.

Are you buying NOVL yet? I think it's time for you to get back in the boat with us! They'll be making some decent progress soon, I think they've 'fessed up to their mistakes and still know how to make a decent profit in their business.

Novell did pretty well, because (IMHO) mostly techno geeks were really making the networking hardware/software buying decisions and Novell's products actually worked better than the others. The most important considerations were Reliability, Availability of file/print services, and Network Managability. Simple and fast software won the market leadership for Novell.

Then ... Microsoft changed the rules by 'extending' Windows to include networking capabilities (Windows for Workgroups) instead of trying to sell MS LAN Manager in competition with NetWare ... porting that concept (Networking included in the End User OS) to WIN95, and WIN NT V3.x ... only relatively recently has MSFT attempted to sell a product primarily as a Server (NT 4) ... not to the 'techno geeks' but to Windows users instead, Novell doesn't seem (yet) to have any way to get these potential customers to even be aware that IntraNetware is a potential product they should consider. Even worse ... as late as February this year Novell seemed to be completely oblivious to the existence of this potential new source of customers ... a Marketing mistake of immense importance. Novell's 'Marketing people' seemed to think that simply because NT/Server compares poorly to Netware in all reasonable technical evaluations that the customers will (as the techno geeks did) buy the 'better' product ... and until this summer didn't seem to consider MicroSoft as competition! The Windows user customers don't seem to do any technical evaluation at all, and whenever they encounter Novell Servers that they have to deal with they get their technical support from MicroSoft trained people that would rather not learn any new OS's ... or introduce any more potential problems to drive up their workload ... most seem to be convinced that their lives will be simpler and easier if they convert all the software they have to deal with to a 'single vendor' ... since they can't get rid of Windows and already know how to support it, they think it makes more sense to extend Windows to the Network server role than to consider Netware.

Even most of the User/Managers seem (still) to be convinced that a 'single vendor strategy' is the most effective use of their money (purchasing budgets, support costs) and don't take into account the impact of poor performance, network management problems, etc ... which frequently cost up to 3 times the total budget for the Networking Hardware and Software ... Novell Marketing knows these issues, and has been sitting on it for 3 years while they 'co-operated' with MicroSoft ... while the shareholders lost 75% of the value of their investment! Read Joe Antol's post of Laura DiDo's article in Computerworld to get an understanding of how substantial the marketing advantage this can be. Customers can usually save enough money from reduced support and equipment costs that even if Novell doubled it's prices and MicroSoft gave their server software away for free the customer's total network cost would still be much less if they simply bought Novell's products instead of MicroSoft's.

Novell has avoided using this for several years, until early this year I was told that Novell considered MicroSoft as a 'friend' (ever since Ray Noorda left) and expected MicroSoft to behave the same way that Novell did ... maybe because they needed to use MicroSoft's SDKs and needed MicroSoft's development support ... dunno why, but it sure looks like a big mistake, that they've finally acknowledged.

Still ... since the time when Novell's and MicroSoft's shares were both priced at $35 each ... Novell's customer base has actually increased ... it's just that the market size has grown and Novell hasn't maintained it's >70% share, falling to something like 55 to 60% now. It's hard to imagine the value of the company declining by about 75% with a growing customer base, but that's what's happened.

Sometime over the summer, Novell finally took notice of the market opportunity that they've ignored for the last 2 years where MicroSoft has been able to effectively ignore Novell as a competitor ... there's lots of money available for Novell to collect if they can get these customers to actually consider the merits of IntraNetware Vs NT/Server ... I expected that their marketing/sales effort would be underway by now, yet I can't see much of an effective marketing campaign ... and they sure aren't trying to close sales in the low end of the Server Marketplace even now. I believe the 'stealth marketing' and non-competitive sales attitudes are due to change ... but, Novell seems to be 'waiting for their best shot' that they expect to come with new products in the next few months ... I think this is another mistake, and hope they get over it immediately.

MicroSoft has proven that these customers will buy non-working products with a promise that it will be fixed sometime in the future, and Novell is still trying to get the products 'perfect' before they offer them for sale! ... This has to change ... they have to start selling to actually get some revenue! I think they will start next month ... because it's fiscal 1998, and they've 'held down' the benchmark results that they have to beat.

Or maybe ... they really don't deserve to keep their own jobs, and maybe the BOD will actually realize the best way to get value for the shareholders will be to sell the company to somebody that knows how to sell software products. There is still incredible value in Novell's customer base, technology, and potential product revenue opportunities ... someone can turn it into real money. The previous management sure didn't seem to know how to do this 'magic trick', that's why some of us got so p***ed at the BOD for letting it happen. I suspect the 'new management' is going to be measured from the 1997 results as a benchmark ... it's almost the time where their results start to count.

Have you seen any good Marketing programs from Novell lately? Or any really strong sales programs? ... I haven't, but expect them to start soon ... or maybe we should try to get the BOD to do something to protect and enhance shareholder value again, maybe they'll actually do something more drastic this time (like sell the company).