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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (44178)	12/21/2008 4:48:40 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217925

... i am certain that the officialdom WILL get the velocity of money up, and i am not at all comfortable that draining will take place to any extent necessary when compensation ought to be. When I see unemployment bottom out and consumer confidence reasserting itself, then I think we'll have to really worry about inflationary pressures and looking for the Fed to drain liquidity. But we just have to look at the Treasury markets right now. Despite all of this liquidity that's being injected, short term bonds have still gone nearly to Zero interest and the 10 year bond is at historic lows. One would think such low yields would "chase" scared money back into other higher yielding asset classes, but so far it hasn't. Thus, until the deflationary pressures bottom out (ie: when assets are priced at such a level that they become irresistible bargains) and unemployment is alleviated and people convinced it's alright to, once again, take on debt or spend savings on discretionary items, I wouldn't be so certain of seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. and if so, the counterattack now gathering force will be of unusual ferocity, and when so ... omg Hope you're right. China was a substantial consumer of commodities and it's the sense that those sectors need to show recovery, and especially dry shipping, to convince people that prices are more likely to go up than to decline (which will motivate people to resume their consumption). People just don't want to purchase anything if they think they can get it cheaper next week (month, year).. ;0) ... i believe folks believe (i) chinese new years will be in january (which it will be), and (ii) devaluation will also be (let's watch n brief) So.. if there's a devaluation of the Yuan, in order to maintain favorable exchange ratio against the Dollar/Euro why would believe this would weaken the dollar? I would think that the Chinese would be buying dollars (or just not repatrioting them back to China). In fact, if what you are saying is correct, then it would only place far MORE upside pressure on long term treasuries and lowering their yield. Protectionism via currency devaluations. But I guess that's better than people shooting at one another. Hawk