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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eagle who wrote (257570)	12/26/2008 10:46:50 PM
From: wbmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: He opines that AMD will be the first 10 BAGGER of 2009. What do you think? Gosh, sounds like a no-brainer as an investment, if true. Since you bring it up, what do you think? Are you loading up tomorrow morning, or merely expressing your skepticism?

To: Eagle who wrote (257570)	12/26/2008 11:38:37 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Given that he opines that AMD might be a buyout candidate at $8/sh, most on this board would think Dvorak must not follow AMD very closely. It is generally considered that AMD is not a buyout candidate because the x86 IP agreement with Intel precludes that. In fact the spinoff of manufacturing and the creation of The Foundry Company seems to be about as far as they can legally go (%wise of ownership). Of course someone might buy them for other reasons (ATI, fabs, patents, whatever), but given the debt that does not seem likely. Someone like IBM could buy them because they already have agreements with Intel, but that does not appear to be a likely direction for IBM. It does look like AMDs 45nm is at least a pleasant surprise rather than another disappointment. So that is the current upside. However, I think there is significant risk that the SWFs in the Gulf are going to be sucking air with oil in the $30's and you might wake up one day to headlines that they are yanking their funding for TFC or drastically altering the terms. For disclosure, I own a small stake of AMD common bought a couple of days ago at $2 with the intent to sell if went +10%, but didn't pull the trigger today. I think it might do a bit better next week on one side of the year end or the other. If the stock gets down in the $1.70 range instead, I might buy a significant chunk, again for shorter term play. Pay attention to the tea leaves since this is the end of quarter, and AMD might (or might not if they don't feel like it!) puke on guidance before earnings next month. They are a little inconsistent in doing this (not necessarily correlated with the need to do it!) There is plenty of risk in this stock so...