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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (44379)	12/27/2008 8:55:49 AM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 217540

The simple model is always the one to go by barring any other evidence. If you apply a linear y=mx + c equation for the data post dec 4th 08 you will see a steady curve with the residuals (errors in prediction). There is also an inflection point which suggests a cubic relationship. If you have owned gold it's amazing how quickly your investment is perceived as either worthless or the only real currency depending on prevailing sentiment. Hence my selection of the cubic function. In the model the Euro is also taken as the proxy variable for all other effects on the POG, a tall order unless you believe it's just the CB's manipulating it -g- I also have an interest how the VIX plays a role. The VIX probably effects the USD in a positive way as I know how most people act when faced with the unknown, especially financial people, they will grope for some familier territory, in this case the USD. Another pulse of high VIX would confirm the relationship.

To: energyplay who wrote (44379)	12/29/2008 11:54:40 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217540

Just been checking things. POG $876 EUR/USD currently. 1.4096 or 1.41 is close enough for government work. I also checked back with he latest data from the site where I took the historical data from, and it confirms. Very up to date btw, it confirms my broker is giving me the same quote. According to my models is the POG should be $845, $844 or $851 depending on which version of the model I quoted predicted. A delta of $25 is a little outside of my expectation to the upside. I don't know whether to be elated or disappointed at this news -g- So continuing with along the same line, the reasons for this could be.... (1) Light trading, end of year adjustments type anomaly. (2) The models are not right. (3) Another new and unknown factor has come into play. Typically I don't argue with what the numbers are telling me, so I am looking at (1) or (3) as possible explanations at the moment. /edit. I've been tracking these velocity numbers, they are not getting any better yet. research.stlouisfed.org