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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (173874)	12/27/2008 4:25:22 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 306849

tejek, I have no doubts about your ability to properly access California real estate. I just think it is different this time. Very, very different. I own gold, so you know where I'm coming from. This is not going to be a six quarter recession (and as expected the start date was rolled back 3-4 quarters so we could have a head start on the recovery...those wall street and government clowns know the game because they invented it). This will be the brutal monster that just keeps on giving. Why? Debt expansion is over for one. That game is played out and our fantastic model post 1971 or so is to expand or die. Jobs that actually produce stuff are gone, gone, gone, and there are only so many service jobs you can create. Financial jobs where the average clown was making 6 times the median income are going to be coveted and held by those that can perform and find a niche in the new game. And there is the debt service itself. That is proving to be a serious bitch for individuals and state and federal government. There will not be even a glimmer of real recovery until 2011 and I have my doubts about even that. Of course the street will tell us it coming or it is here, but those will just be great trading opportunities. There will be lots of them. And one unit of the Dow will equal one ounce of gold before it is all over. And that is when I sell the gold and go long equities for the real turn. I'm thinking 2012 or maybe 2014. Did I mention riots? There are going to be a bunch of them and they will scar large metro areas and impact housing values. I respect your expertise, but I'm looking at the macro variables and there is pain coming that most have never experienced ever in their lifetimes. GT TH

To: tejek who wrote (173874)	12/27/2008 4:40:53 PM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

<<Californians know how to play this game and some play it very well. FWIW.>> Looks like that game has been played one too many times. I think it's different this time, just like a stock market falling 40%+ is a different game today. Maybe a war or terrorist stuff on the Right coast will save the CA RE market, but that's about it. I don't care how nice the view or the weather is, some of those places still got 30%-50% or more to go. For instance WB thought GS was cheap at 115/120....now $76, 10% divi helping but still. Notice how he's stayed out of the media since then too. I think you'll see this first wave of REO buyers eating crow pretty soon as the "deal" they thought they had just turns into a falling knife.