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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (173890)12/27/2008 5:21:15 PM
From: THRespond to of 306849
 
tejek,

I understand your point, but my current sentiment is not new. I've been bearish on the economy since late 06 (I was early with some shorts), and I've been prediction debt destruction since late 2003, with the assumption that it would start in 2007 and absolutely implode in 2010.

I'm into long range forecasting, for I know that I'll never out-trade the pros if I wait for them to tell me about a trend.

So, this downturn in the market is just a blip on the screen to MORE down. We might get a 10-15% rally right here, but so many expect it (on SI and all the usual suspects) that I am beginning to doubt that it will really materialize. We could have a retest of the lows within 60 days of the arrival of our savior OB (don't get me wrong, I like OB, but he is just a man, and like Clinton said, it took him a few months to realize that he was not really in charge <g>).

GT
TH



To: tejek who wrote (173890)12/27/2008 6:26:02 PM
From: Live2SailRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
For ever, until now, it was said that real estate was local. And that was true. What has changed in the last ten years is that finance has gone from local to global. If the world doesn't want to finance houses, then the money for homes in L.A. will have to be cash that the locals have. Do the locals have that cash?

That's really the difference between then and now. It's more than just jobs, the access to money has been greatly reduced.


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