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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (70922)	1/3/2009 5:35:48 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

<<Meanwhile, is the current rally fool's gold or the real thing? ...>> fool's rally, but can ramp 50% for some stuff and 100% for other stuff, and will offer last chance to get as far away from usa assets and liabilities (incl usd) as possible; however, most of the escape routes are traps, except very few, and you know what they are. any reach for yield can be fatal. <<A look at the Nikkei from 1990 to now, property prices and returns on Yen [interest rates] and shares [dividends] shows just how long and arduous investment interregnums can be>> blanket statements are dangerous, for we of phoenix more than doubled our money by japan during the interregnum. i am quite excited about 2009, for it will be as much or more of a spectacle as 2008 was, i guess.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (70922)	1/3/2009 9:21:53 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

There are hordes of people with money in the bank which they were hoping would provide them with a modest income but which now is at very UnHappy Meal interest rates. They must be thinking they have to do something, anything, to get a better return. If individual investors cannot do better than 1% it is because they are lazy and not looking. A combination of higher risk stuff with very conservative investments can lead to reasonable income returns, e.g., with any luck at all, my VNR dividends coupled with a minimum appreciation of the units may very well pay for most of their purchase price in a couple of years - perhaps earlier - while some Treasuries provide a modicum of safety. Some corporate debt is also very appealing at present. I am searching. Then there is the fun stuff, TBT, SRS, metals, commodities, energy. Seek and ye shall find but be very careful in this market. A recent statistic was astonishing - no sectors in US manufacturing showed growht in December. If I recall correctly, this is a first. A very bad sign for future employment, which is of course the single most important economic statistic. All this gloom, though of course regrettable, has been perfectly predicted by the bears. It is in fact so regrettable that it may be time to begin toning down the chest thumping. By the way, for folks without an inclination to look and research alternatives, Q was actually not a bad place to be in '08. A 100% Q holder did considerably better than most investors and can rightfully claim to be a winner in the 'he who loses the least wins' contest. My final '08 calculations are not complete, but it appears preliminarily that I am virtually unchanged from last year. Whew!