Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (444248)	1/3/2009 2:20:18 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1578232

In the midst of the deepest recession in the experience of most Americans, many professional forecasters are optimistically heading into the new year declaring that the worst may soon be over. For this rosy picture to play out, they are counting on the Obama administration and Congress to come through with a substantial stimulus package, at least $675 billion over two years. They say that will get the economy moving again in the face of persistently weak spending by consumers and businesses, not to mention banks that are reluctant to extend credit. There is a trader, not an economist, on the TSCM website who called this recession back near the beginning of 2007 and starting going short mid to late 2007. He has called this mess every inch of the way. Of course people laughed at him. Even for while Cramer disagreed with him....until mid 2007, then they were both on the same page. Well this guy is saying the worst is over. He closed up his shorts in November and went long. Bill Fleckenstein who has been short most of this decade closed his shorts at the beginning of December. Cramer is calling for a housing bottom, assuming the feds do what they say they will do, for mid 2009. I don't know who to believe so I keep an open mind. Right now, I have a few longs......if I get stopped out, I go short. Its as simple as that. Many economists are more pessimistic, of course. Nouriel Roubini at New York University, who called the 2008 market disaster correctly, wrote in a recent commentary on Bloomberg News that he foresees “a deep and protracted contraction lasting at least through the end of 2009.” I don't get some of these economists.....its almost like they want a depression. I guess its a form of fatalism. Even if the economy begins to right itself by this summer, the recession would still be the longest since the 1930s, which was the last time the government engaged in widespread public spending to overcome the persistent inertia in consumer and business spending. Isn't it the longest already? “The consensus says we are in the deepest part of the recession now,” Mr. Moore said. “But the stimulus package and much lower gasoline prices are expected to somewhat restore consumer confidence and personal spending and that will put us on the road back.” I think having a competent president will inspire people and give them more confidence then they have right now. I've said before that I believe psychology plays a huge role in recessions.