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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44660)	1/3/2009 8:58:37 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217548

Make the future: 'those trading on inside information' do that. Take Sadia the food producer here in Brazil. They know much more about the market of frozen chickens, salami, ham and all the stuff they make than the people who buy their shares: -the price movement of the feed stock for the animals -the seasonal variation of the consumption internal market Brazil and the importers. -the gains in cheaper transport -the drop in energy prices -The tax implications -How much soft loans they are getting from BNDES (the state bank that provides credit) -They know what happens when every % of interest rate move affect their business. what their CFO is doing with the USD they get from imports was crucial. Investors neglected that and see the result: Specifically, Defendants failed to disclose or indicate (1) that Sadia entered into currency derivative contracts to hedge against U.S. dollar exposure that were entirely imprudent and twice as large positions called for by the Company's hedge policy; (2) that the Company's financial statements were materially false and misleading in that they failed to account for the Company's massive exposure to currency market fluctuations; and (3) that, as a result of the foregoing, the Company's statements about its financial well-being and future business prospects were lacking in any reasonable basis when made. msnbc.msn.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44660)	1/3/2009 9:19:13 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217548

Predicting the future long term is easy. Difficult is predict the future short term. Because the short term "look obvious". So obvious that even Elroy and Maurice can dispute what I am saying. But that obvious evaporates with time. Give you an example: It was easy to predict -early 90s- that Europe would not end up as a monolithic continent. Only that in short term all appeared to be going into that direction and my assertion sounded absurd then. (That Elroy and Maurice wold see and believe as the "fact". But facts tend to have a short shelf life. Europe is playing as I predicted that all coalesce into a Grand Europe, then slow down. Ground to a halt, then revert back and will surely split once again. Europe as a distribution fo funds is good, but once those funds have been distributed and the gains of entering already on the bag, people change their minds. You have seen that Europe should have been he currency. But it is not as England, Norway, Sweden stayed out. Then there was th constitution. No no everywhere. Now we are seeing the Southern Europe going belly up and soon the reverting will start. You know that being right too early provides no gains. Gains are achieved when you predict the short term. Predicting short term is where insiders excel.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44660)	1/3/2009 9:29:04 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217548

If one has a stake on a future outcome, his prediction is slanted. How could Elroy see that he has in store for him? He'd have to contemplate the toughest luck of his life for next two decades. That is hard for him to believe. Thus he comfort himself in the vain belioef that that 2009 to 2018 will be a repetition of 1999 to 2008. He can't 'see' IT because he has a stake on that outcome. And that outcome is, namely, reverting to poverty. The drop from oilman -that same milk teat profession Maurice sucked- towards an alternative profession and now reality strikes him.