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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42463)	1/3/2009 12:52:29 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95587

Hi Don, My bet is the decline is already over. The SIA report noted that if you exclude memory the chips sales were up 5.6 %. Since the major memory makers have shut down their operations already - I suspect the workout will be quick and the resumption of production will be slowed. Demand accross the board slumped in 02 and inventories were high every where. The supply demand equation favors a quick response back up and the limited breadth of oversupply also favors a quicker recovery. I add to that Intels move to get broadband to the other 2 billion people on the globe thqat don't have access to braod band and I suggets this is a final shakeout before a robust and long term recovery begin. I like this buying opportunity much to that of October 1998 - just before a new wave of innovation and growth. It is time now the be aggressive MORE THJAN EVER!!! IMHO Bob Mergers and acquisitions will mark this next quarter and we'll be off.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42463)	1/3/2009 12:57:31 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95587

The following table this week is very interesting because it shows the large divergences that occur from time to time between the earnings estimates and the price action. From the bottom that occurred for the Group and SOX on the week ending 11/21, earnings have continued their downward march while the stock prices have trended upward. Note that all estimate changes from 11/21 have been to the downside(and with 1 or 2 exceptions from 8/29/08 as well), and these changes in aggregate have been quite large. The blue overlay line shows the summary since the bottom on 11/21. For the Group, earnings estimates have decreased from 6.30 and 8.83 to 3.86 and 4.79, or percentage changes of -38.7 and -45.8 respectively, while the price for the Group has gone up 30.7 percent. Similar numbers for the SOX are shown as well. The majority of stocks report on a calendar quarter basis. In a couple of weeks, earnings reports will begin coming out. At that point, based on company reports and outlooks for the future, many earnings estimates will be changed. I may be wrong, but I think that the earnings estimates at the bottom line for the Group and the SOX will continue into the "red" for both the "curr yr" and "next yr". The big question is - if this happens, will stock prices continue to hold or clime upward, or will we see new lows under the 11/21 numbers? As usual, time will tell.