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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (16077)	1/5/2009 10:12:14 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71456

I'm not, in general, expecting anything drastic in gold, except a test of the lower bullish channel. This has been a 100% rally in gold stocks from the lows, in 2 months. And, it remains technically broken intermediate term. We'll see. I'm just trading hedges around the long position. However, a generally gold bearish season is coming up in February. I am expecting gold to end interim bear market later this year (around August), if it continues to breathe with its own market cycles and not discount the Fed's largesse and the bailout packages. The dollar can remain bullish as rate reductions abroad continue taking place, while the Fed is obviously done. All I say is that one has to be careful with gold around these technical levels, since the market is undergoing a severe mid-cycle correction (in USD) similar to 1975. Despite this, the secular long term gold bull is alive. In fact, gold just made all time highs in the average global currency, so this is the dollar strength effect. -g-

To: Tommaso who wrote (16077)	1/5/2009 10:39:30 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71456

FWIW. I essentially expect recovery in the US this year due to all the enormous bailouts that will work, albeit temporarily. The same reason that drove gold prices lower in 75. It could drive the USD somewhat higher, as the globe lags. Message 25297448 The key reason is the credit market, which has been improving since ~ October. Ted spread collapsed. Corporate spreads will come down. This chart summarizes the key reason for the "double dip" recession hypothesis very well, I think. We'll have some very rough times in 2010-11. <g>