Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (33213)	1/6/2009 12:42:38 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78614

Short selling - Value investors shorting things after S&P500 dropped 38% in a year... OK, I will go out on a limb and predict that you guys will end badly. So what- 38% down - that does not mean that some stocks are still overvalued. We are also up 25% from the bottom to look at the situation another way. I don't think that it's time to go all out and short anything but some selective shorts do make sense. For example a pair trade short XOM - long COP, TOT, RDS-A (put you favorite oil company) is a value conscious approach imo. The truckers are flat YOY despite crummy looking fundamentals. A lot of banks are going to go belly up and will be nationalized because real estate keeps falling. I am typically not a trendfollower - rather a contrarian but things are unhinged in a way that I have never seen before. Forget the 1990,2001 or 1982 recession, what we have hear is a much worse situation. A lot of damage that has been done is not yet apparent but will be during Y2009, at least that is my opinion.