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To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (6146)	1/6/2009 12:46:30 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Respond to of 6924

Global manufacturing ended 2008 on an exceptionally weak footing. December PMI data pointed to series-record contractions in output, new orders and employment as companies continued to face weak market demand resulting from the worldwide economic downturn and ongoing crises in the financial and credit markets. This was most striking in the US, where production and new work received fell at the fastest rates in the sixty-one year ISM survey. At 33.2 in December, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted its weakest ever reading and has sunk to new lows in each month of Q4 2008. Based on the average reading for the headline PMI, the performance of the worldwide manufacturing sector through 2008 is the worst for a calendar year since 2001. Latest data pointed to a broad-based scaling back of production and new work received. Almost all of the national output and new orders indexes for which December figures were available were at their lowest or second-lowest readings in their respective series histories. The weakest performance was registered by Japan, whose output and new orders indexes fell to levels unprecedented in the histories of any of the national manufacturing surveys included in the global manufacturing PMI. At 28.8 in December, the Global Manufacturing Output Index was consistent with a drop in global IP of around 12%- 15% saar. Although emerging market economies fared comparatively better than developed economies, the downturn also deepened further in emerging nations. Employment fell for the fifth successive month in December, and to the greatest extent in survey history. All of the national manufacturing sectors recorded a drop in staffing levels, most at series-record rates including all of the Eurozone nations, China and the UK. The sharpest falls in employment were signalled for Denmark, Spain, the US, Russia and the UK. Average input prices declined in December, as oil, metals and transportation costs fell further. The Global Manufacturing Input Prices Index posted 31.3, its lowest ever reading. The rate of deflation was especially marked in the US, were purchase prices fell to the greatest extent since June 1949. Rates of decrease in costs hit series records in the Eurozone, Russia, Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Denmark.

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (6146)	1/6/2009 6:28:19 PM
From: stomper	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6924

Worst predictions redux (All spoken by Hank Paulson): April 20, 2007 — “I don’t see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained.” July 26, 2007 — “I don't think it [the subprime mess] poses any threat to the overall economy.” November 29, 2007 — “While the difficulties in housing and credit markets and the effects of high energy prices will extract a penalty from growth, the US economy has many strengths, and I expect the expansion to continue,” December 7, 2007 - “The US banking system is well-capitalized and ‘we have a strong deposit insurance system that provides good coverage for the savings of hard-working Americans.’” March 16, 2008 — “I have great, great confidence in our capital markets and in our financial institutions. Our financial institutions, banks and investment banks, are strong. Our capital markets are resilient. They’re efficient. They’re flexible.” May 16, 2008 — “Looking forward, I expect that financial markets will be driven less by the recent turmoil and more by broader economic conditions and, specifically, by the recovery of the housing sector.” July 20, 2008 — “It’s a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of it. This is a very manageable situation.”

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (6146)	4/20/2009 10:28:49 AM
From: richardred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6924

How accurate Pickens be for this year? Maybe Brazil will be a force in years to come. Brazil oil find may hit 8b barrels By Joe Carroll \| 2009-3-14 \| NEWSPAPER EDITION EXXON Mobil Corp's oil discovery off the coast of Brazil may hold enough crude to rival the nearby Tupi prospect as the Western Hemisphere's largest find in three decades. shanghaidaily.com ____________________________________________________________________ T. Boone Pickens sees oil at $75 at end-year * Monday April 20, 2009, 9:23 am EDT ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - Texas oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens on Monday reiterated his prediction that crude oil prices would hit $75 a barrel this year as producers scale back production. Pickens said about OPEC producers: "They told you they want $75 by the end of the year, I would count on that, I believe them." OPEC has scaled back output to help support crude prices, which have dropped from record highs over $147 a barrel in July to around $47 a barrel on Monday. "I think you are going to clean up the stocks because the people who have the oil are cutting supply," Pickens said at an alternative fuels and vehicles conference, referring to the nearly 19-year high on U.S. inventories of crude oil reported last week by the federal government. The United States would likely burn through its supply overhang in three months, he told reporters. (Reporting by Timothy Gardner; Editing by John Picinich) finance.yahoo.com