To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (4730 ) 1/6/2009 5:15:24 PM From: RockyBalboa Respond to of 6370 UPDATE 1-Moody's sees severe recession; default rates up Tue, Jan 6 2009, 21:52 GMTafxnews.com NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Moody's Corp, the parent of credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service, on Tuesday forecast a "severe recession" in 2009, with high-yield corporate default rates climbing to between 10 and 12 percent. "The conditions that we experienced in 2008 at a GDP level are going to be increasingly challenging in 2009," Raymond McDaniel, chairman and chief executive of Moody's Corp, said at Citi's Global Entertainment, Media and Telecommunications conference. "We have in most areas of the world a declining GDP growth with China being the exception, but even the Chinese rate of GDP growth decelerating from what it was in 2008," he added. Moody's estimated the U.S. economy will shrink 1.5 percent in 2009, while the European Union will 0.6 percent and Japan's economy will contract 0.5 percent, pressured by weak consumer activity. McDaniel said the subprime mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and collateralized debt obligations markets were gone, while the future of the asset-backed commercial paper market was in doubt. However, some consumer and commercial asset-backed markets could resume their activities, he said, after what called a "very rough cycle". "I don't expect a significant resumption in securitization in 2009," McDaniel said. (Reporting by Juan Lagorio, editing by Leslie Adler) Keywords: MOODY'S/ (Reuters Messaging: juan.lagorio.reuters.com@reuters.net; +1 646 223 6124) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.