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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XBrit who wrote (175477)	1/7/2009 2:18:47 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Whoa, Nellie - what got into India? I want some of what they're having... `BC

To: XBrit who wrote (175477)	1/7/2009 8:10:43 AM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 306849

>>>You mean "bull trap" by the way.<<< Very good. Thanks. I was under the impression that it was the bulls who came in well before the bottom who became trapped by the bears or a bear market. Hence it is the bears who are trapped as opposed to my understanding that it was the bears doing the trapping. Definition of Bear trap Campbell R. Harvey's Hypertextual Finance Glossary The predicament facing short sellers when a bear market reverses its trend and becomes bullish . Bonds (Bears???) continue to sell in the anticipation of further declines in price, and then are forced to cover at higher prices. Also.... bear trap {n.}, {slang}, {citizen's band radio jargon} A police radar unit designed to catch speeders.

To: XBrit who wrote (175477)	1/7/2009 8:17:08 AM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 306849

>>>the trade deficit gets fixed and the debts are inflated away...the only non-catastrophic way out for the US. <<< Nice post. What you suggest above is certainly the classical pattern, and I am sure what the FED intends. That is probably what will happen absent structural changes....that is to say this time it won't be different. But I think that this time it will be different. It will be different because of peak oil. This will make it harder for all economies to recover. The US will be especially hard hit because it has become such a heavy importer of oil, and its currency will continue to be weakened as it prints more to pay for its energy imports. Stated differently...the trade deficit maybe won't get fixed. OPEC will get tired of receiving increasing worthless greenbacks for its crude which is of such demonstrable value. Demonstrable value??? Look at Europe shiver at the hands of Putin's latest tinkering with the natural gas market. Ukraine/Europe will be paying a lot more and/or return to its status as a "New Soviet" vassal - which will have its currency dictated by the Kremlin.