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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33233)	1/8/2009 2:02:15 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

CSX - the argument went that those RR companies benefit from high fuel prices (because of their inherent energy efficiency). Now should we not deploy the reverse logic and say that RR are less competitive when fuel is cheaper as is the case now. Infrastructure may benefit RR a bit but better roads if anything would also benefit the truckers - the RR main competitions. The biggest near term problem is that there is just less stuff to haul around - less steel, less cars less almost everything is produced and less needs to be moved. the earnings forecast seem to ignore all that and assume that the RR can increase tariffs by a substantial amount to make up for all this. This just does not seem all that plausible to me.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (33233)	3/4/2009 12:23:14 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

Added some GGB to my previous buys. This lowers my average cost significantly. Brazil steel mills should benefit from the enhanced China stimulus package. Also Brazil seems to be weathering the world wide recession better than many of the other emerging markets. The Brazil finance minister expects growth to resume in the 2nd half of 2009. Their new growth forecasts is an optimistic 4% annual rate for 2009 (up from a negative view earlier this year). I will be happy to see half that rate. I am able to but a lot more shares at $5.30/share level than at the $16.00/share level where my first small buy was in 9/2008. EKS