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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yorikke who wrote (45002)	1/8/2009 8:01:15 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220198

recommendation: buygold, and hedge buygold with buyplatinum just in in-tray · GREED & fear's view remains that the counter-trend rally can continue for now, most particularly with the potential positive policy catalyst to be provided by the incoming Obama administration. The issue is whether the new president will announce policy that positively surprises on the US housing market, and not just the well leaked US$775bn fiscal stimulus. The other positive for equities is the continuing decline in corporate credit spreads. · The theme of the new Asia Maxima (Policy panic, 1Q09) remains the potential policy response in both America and China. The policy response of governments remains the key variable for investors in all asset classes. · The Western world faces a debt-deflation bust manifested in a vicious cycle of deleveraging; while Asia led by China faces not only a severe cyclical shock; but also the challenge of finally being forced to pursue a more domestic-demand-led growth model. · The problems in most of the Western world are structural in nature, whereas in Asia they are mostly cyclical reflecting the relative lack of leverage in the region. But market action has remained almost completely Wall Street correlated. Indeed, a feature of 2008 was correlations almost "going to one" as stock markets everywhere collapsed. · One choice for American policy makers when confronted with the current slowdown would be to accept that the US has over-consumed and that the time has come for a healthy macro adjustment. Another choice is to fight the trend aggressively on the view that such a slowdown is politically and socially untenable. It is increasingly clear to GREED & fear that America has opted for the latter option and the result is likely to be a scary cocktail of fiscal and monetary activism. · GREED & fear's view is that execution of this policy response will encourage markets to believe they will work. But ultimately these policies will fail, discrediting conventional monetarist and Keynesian orthodoxy. The painful but necessary outcome will be the end of the US dollar paper standard leading to a long overdue realization of the inherent instability of fiat paper money systems. · The ultimate end game in countries like America and Britain will be nationalisation of most of the banking system. It would be much better if this was done proactively rather than reactively since it would accelerate resolution of the financial crisis. This is why nationalisation of the banks would also be bullish for the stock market if not for the specific bank stocks themselves. · A five-times overweight position in Asia ex-Japan and other emerging markets continues to be recommended for long-term dedicated global equity investors in the new Asia Maxima, which means they should have at least 35% of their global portfolios invested in Asia ex-Japan and 49% in emerging markets. · The Asia ex-Japan thematic portfolio has risen by 250% in US-dollar terms since its inception at the end of 3Q02, compared with a 67% rise in the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index. The portfolio declined by 22.1% last quarter and was down 54% in 2008, which were almost exactly in line with the regional index. Owners of the portfolio should continue to short Western financial stocks as a necessary hedge. This would have reduced the damage considerably last year. · The Japanese thematic portfolio marginally outperformed the Topix last quarter declining by 19.9% in yen terms compared with a 21% fall in the Topix. The portfolio fell by 41.4% in 2008, compared with a 41.8% decline in the Topix. The portfolio is now down 15.1% in yen terms since inception on 17 March 2005, while the Topix has declined by 27.9% over the same period.

To: Yorikke who wrote (45002)	1/9/2009 8:21:15 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 220198

Stagnation of Japan is a natural development as is Europe's and US on their way to Japanization. Babybomers propelled the Japan, US an Europe into affluence and their demise will send them into a shrinking to their natural size. New Data: European Economy Skidding Grim figures show that unemployment is up, GDP is declining, and economic and business sentiment are at an all-time low businessweek.com Demographics is working its way. Economic crisis are just the collateral effect. Emerging markets entered their demographic window in the 90s, are having the babyboom effect on their affluence and economic growth. Result: emerging makrets will grow no matter what happens to Japan, Europe and the US. They will pick up the slack.