Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Klaus who wrote (9261)	10/23/1997 5:28:00 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jon, the fortunes of INTC (leader in Chip making) and AMAT (leader in Chip Equipment making) are pretty much intertwined. Set the comparison graph linked below to 100 months and you can see that AMAT (the smaller company who depends on the fortune of the bigger company) outperforms INTC during Bull market years and underperforms during Bear market years. Set also to 20 days. AMAT's line in the graph exagerates the other in both Up and down cycles...as investors turn positive for the Chip market, they tend to prop up the price of AMAT more than INTC; as those investors turn to fear of a slowdown such as now, they tend to sell the Former more than the Later...Furthermore, Investors cast aside fundamentals as Fear sets in:---they just Sell and Sell... techstocks.com

To: Jon Klaus who wrote (9261)	10/23/1997 6:20:00 PM
From: roly	Respond to of 70976

Jon, IMO, there are few events that led to where AMATs stock is now. 1. MU missing their earning bigtime and making comments about holding equipment purchase which later was not confirmed or nothing specifics. 2. INTC missing their earning (by 0.03 and market make a big deal, I believe that when INTC released their earning, the market was on a profit taking mood. I still believe that INTC would have gone down even if they made their earning that week based from the reaction that CPQ, JBIL and TXN got) 3. Greenspan "Unsustainable Growth" comment which I believe trigger tech stocks profit taking. 4. The week long series of the '87 crash. This set the investors mood to be defensive. Keep in mind that AMATs low for the year is about $12 so again a good target for profit taking. 5. Currency issue in Asia. Since Taiwan had been publicized as one of the heaviest investors, the question is will they hold off equipment expansion. 6. I also believe that the split did not help AMAT because it is easy to go down by 2 when infact it should down by 4 before the split. However, lets look at the facts and the overall situation. 1. ASMLF has record backlog. CYMI just reported their sequential growth. Where will these steppers go? Can't be to an old fab. 2. INTC earnings shortfall was not due to slowdown or reduced quantity of chips but rather than pricing issues. 3. The 300 mm is a go. There's a lot of investment for this to happen. It may take some debugging but the fact is it is a go. And who has the best R & D and has the opportunity to be the leader in the 300 mm.? 4. Mr Greenspan got his wish. A market pull back which lessen the possibility of an interest hike this year. 5. There still a lot of people there that don't have computers (China, South America, etc). New applications for higher and faster chips are coming out. Digital camera, etc. 6. AMAT is a very well managed company. 7. Its a mistake to sell now since the stock is badly beaten. Its most likely to go up than down. 8. I'll bet my ass, Kurlack will come out in about 2 weeks and will say, INTC is a buy (thats guaranteed!!!) 9. Our economy is great, we will have a surplus next year!! I'm sorry this is a long post, been a rough 2 weeks. Hoping for a big turnaround here. There is too much bearish sentiment and trying to do a counteroffensive. Regards. Roly