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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Real Man who wrote (84910)1/10/2009 8:15:43 PM
From: William H Huebl  Respond to of 94695
 
Thanks for that analysis... You have been so right so many times before that I cannot see any reason to disagree with you now!



To: Real Man who wrote (84910)1/10/2009 9:08:54 PM
From: Hawk  Respond to of 94695
 
Were doomed, Wall Street has hijacked government as witness by the bailouts, easy money for financial institutions, reluctant to give auto makers small amount. Constitution is no longer our blueprint for our government but is run as an autocracy via executive orders by the president. Congress is no longer consulted on issues of war, spending etc.



To: Real Man who wrote (84910)1/11/2009 8:31:09 PM
From: Oblomov1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
>>The liquidationists have been wrong during the Great Depression, they are wrong again.

Vi, you are usually perspicacious, but are off track here. Liquidation was never tried during the Great Depression. Although it was the policy suggested by Andrew Mellon and others (liquidation in the Panic of 1896 and the recession of 1920-1 resulted in short, sharp downturns), it was not tried. By 1930, Hoover had put in place New Deal style programs that were expanded under FDR.

The interventions in the economy prolonged the Depression by at least five years. It wasn't the interventions per se that caused the economy to stagnate, but rather the uncertainty the capricious nature of his experiments caused for businesses and financial institutions. For example, consider FDR's decision to burn millions of acres of crops and slaughter five million hogs (disposing of the meat) in order to prop up prices. Or consider the novel method he used to shake investor confidence in gold:

Some of the worst destruction came with FDR's gold experiment. If he could drive up the price of gold by buying it, he reasoned, other prices would rise as well. Roosevelt was right to want to introduce more money into the economy (the United States was deflating). But his method was like trying to raise an ocean level by adding water by the thimbleful. What horrified markets even more was that FDR managed the operation personally, day by day, over a breakfast tray. No one ever knew what the increase would be. One Friday in November 1933, Roosevelt told Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau that the gold price should be raised 21 cents. Why that amount, Morgenthau asked. "Because it's three times seven," FDR replied.

Morgenthau later wrote that "if anybody knew how we set the gold price, through a combination of lucky numbers, etc., I think they would be frightened."


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