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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dave9 who wrote (100602)	1/11/2009 2:22:56 PM
From: TH	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Dave, That is correct. Here are the actuals. 13,244,018 2008 16,149,647 2007 16.5 2006 16.9 2005 Somewhere in my files at the office I have a ten year chart. I'll see if I can dig it up. The long term graph is fairly steady, with a few bad years. Say 14.5 to 17 for the past decade or so. As previously discussed, the model the Detroit Three have built their business on is very simple. Sell to tooling capacity and then start making money. The problem of course is that all that capital is already sunk and now they are completely trapped with a very unprofitable take rate to cover the nut and the tooling amortization. Game over at 10 million or less. The suppliers are no wiser, at least the big ones. They had to chase the same volume targets to make it pay and now that the volume is gone, so are the profits, the workers, and in many cases, the actual business. The only solution to this problem is to get smaller and with the debt, investment, and labor issues, that just can't happen fast enough. Related notes: My number one Chrysler contact (and I'm talking high up the chain) will leave Chrysler forever tomorrow. He has accepted a new position as of Friday. I am certain other management will follow him at some point. A very bad sign when this level of talent leaves. Tells me much about the potential for Chrysler to survive. My buddy at the private company tells me that staff is down to about 25% and he expects an announcement within the next 6 weeks. Game over for this long standing fixture in the Detroit automotive game. It was just the lack of volume and no planning to build a war chest to survive the bad times. I am certain the founder of this company has rolled over in his grave, for he left the company very fat just a decade ago and thought he appointed a very skilled guy to become CEO. The founder knew good times and bad times are expected and always had a buffer to make it to the next uptick. GT TH