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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (11286)	1/12/2009 8:04:11 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi Tom, in terms of US notes and Bonds, It's the market realization that we have a huge ocean of New "Money" from the FED, Congress, stimulus packages. Not sure how the TNX can go lower without the FED actively bidding it up in price / down in yield. I'm sure Bill Gross will be proven correct in his pronouncements that Treasuries have bubble like Qualities with the price action the past number of months. I was thinking that Obamarama would set off a multi-month rally in equities, but I am beginning to think that it will be a top with a pretty decent pullback. as were many. It seems as if President elect Obama is pretty much focused on tamping down expectations on how quickly we recover, in addition to admonishing the populous about how bad things are. He's not quite taking the FDR approach of telling the country that we have nothing to fear but fear itself. It seems that he's more politically attenuated to making the first half of the year the proverbial "kitchen sink" Quarter or two where all the bad news that could be written off will be pointed out. His biggest political test of his acumen is that we'll see how quickly he morphs from politicking and playing politics and changes gear towards being a proactive agent of optimism. Much as JFK, FDR, and RWR all were. That said it's not going to be all smooth sailing and V shaped recover, so it does not make sense for him to be pointlessly too much of a cheerleading optimist. The next few months are going to be one of the Most Interesting and serious experiments in How a new political leader can impact the mass mood and the innate level of faith in the "system" Nice Analysis you have there by the way, John