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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (42083)	1/12/2009 8:17:09 PM
From: octavian	3 Recommendations Respond to of 42834

Web$urf said: "a professional 'market timer' should be continually measuring risks, and act accordingly! risks have been mounting steadily for the better part of 2008, which many foresaw and said so." math replied: <<That's too vague to provide a usable strategy for avoiding the losses. There's always risk in the market, and there's always someone who is saying the risk is too great.>> --That, math, is one of those pearls of wisdom that everyone SHOULD know, but few seem to ACTUALLY know. People also forget that there were ALWAYS LOTS of bears preaching their doom and gloom throughout the 90s bull. If we had had a huge bear in 1997, there were plenty of people who would have "seen it coming." <<Brinker is obviously not able to consistently avoid major bear markets. You seem to be claiming that there are people who can do it. What I want to know is who are they?>> --Good luck getting a 'real' answer. -:) BTW, one guy I used to love to watch in the 90s was Jimmy Rogers. He was constantly on CNBC, preaching doom and gloom, talking about how 'dangerous' and 'risky' the stock market was. But he would always end by saying he was 'net long.' That way, he always had it both ways. As the market kept going up and up, people would ask him about his bearish stance, and he would say: "I'm not a bear. I'm net long." But of course, if there had been a big bear, he would have been one of the "geniuses" who predicted it, or "saw it coming." LOL

To: Math Junkie who wrote (42083)	1/13/2009 4:47:38 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

>>What I want to know is who are they?<< 1. those who stayed out of the insanely over valued market. 2. those who are incredibly lucky (and will likely give it all back at some point, if not more). there is no third option. anyone smart enough to sell everything near the top was smart enough to get out of risky equities a loooooong time ago. a couple concepts have to be taken out back and shot. 1. "the only risk is not being in the market." i heard this 3 weeks before the market meltdown in september/october. people who think like that will likely lose everything. 2. "dollar cost averaging works over the long run." not always. take a look at the 20 year chart on the nikkei and you'll notice it is down about 90%, inflation adjusted over a two decade period. anyone who dollar cost averaged into that mess is in a world of hurt. the amazing thing to me is that 10 years if bubble market benefits can literally be wiped out in a month or two. it is stunning. just stunning.