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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42640)1/12/2009 10:50:02 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation  Respond to of 95520
 
From Briefing.com: 5:04PM KLA-Tencor lowers Q2 revs guidance (KLAC) 21.46 -0.59 : Co revises its previously issued financial outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2009, reflecting further deterioration of the condition of the semiconductor and related industries. "Global economic uncertainty, weak consumer demand, and turbulent financial markets have led our customers to scale back production operations and reduce capital expenditures. Business conditions in our markets have deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, leading to unanticipated shortfall in quarterly new orders, revenues and earnings for KLA-Tencor, with weak services revenue a key contributing factor to that result. We cannot predict the severity or duration of this economic downturn. In light of these conditions, we recently announced actions we are taking that are intended to optimize our cost structure and lower our break-even level, while maintaining our strategic focus and strong financial position. We will continue to evaluate further cost savings as conditions merit." Co sees Q2 new bookings of $235-245 mln. Co lowers guidance for Q2 (Dec), sees Q2 (Dec) revs of $390-400 mln, down from $410-430 mln, vs. $415.66 mln First Call consensus.Co is in the process of conducting its annual evaluation of the value of its goodwill and intangible assets for potential impairment. Based on the result to date of the continuing evaluation, co currently anticipates incurring a material non-cash impairment charge on certain of its goodwill and intangible assets in the second quarter of fiscal 2009. Co is unable to provide an estimate of its GAAP or Non-GAAP EPS until the completion of the ongoing evaluation of the value of its goodwill and intangible assets, but expects that it will report a loss from operations for the quarter, even before taking into account the impairment charge.

5:02PM Voltaire lowers Q4 EPS and revs guidance (VOLT) 2.70 -0.25 : CO sees Q4 EPS loss of $0.07-0.10, down from loss of $0.02-0.08 on revs of $12.8-13.3 mln, down from $14.0-16.0 mln (no ests). Co expects to report net cash, cash equivalents, marketable bonds and securities as of December 31, 2008 in excess of $55 million. Co anticipates that the macro-economic turbulence will continue to affect its business, at least through the first half of 2009. This is in addition to the typical historical seasonal slowdown in the first half of the year.

4:14PM Alcoa misses by $0.18, beats on revs, says its liquidity remains solid (AA) 10.06 -0.75 : Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.28 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.18 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.10); revenues fell 19.1% year/year to $5.69 bln vs the $5.26 bln consensus. Co says it is taking wide-ranging measures to address the economic downturn, including streamlining its portfolio to focus on businesses where Alcoa is the recognized leader, curtailing production to adjust to weakened demand, reducing headcount, and achieving significant savings in key raw materials. Co suffered from a historic 56% price decline in aluminum over the last five months and saw a sharp drop in orders. Co says its liquidity remains solid. (currently halted, no resumption time)

4:25 pm : A bit of late support kept stocks from closing at their session lows. Still, losses were deep and broad-based, extending last week's declines.

The recent downturn comes as market participants prepare for an earnings season that begins this evening when Dow component Alcoa (AA 10.06, -0.75) announces its latest quarterly results.

Expectations for the company are low. Its shares were actually downgraded to Sell by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Profit concerns have fueled recent selling efforts, underscoring a change in the broader market's sentiment.

During recent weeks investors would shake off disappointing data and bid stocks higher. That helped the stock market rebound more than 25% from its November low to its January.

The stock market has fallen nearly 4.5% over the last two sessions.

Losses have been the worst among financial stocks during that time. This session financials shed 5.7%, which was more than any other sector. Over the past two sessions financials have fallen almost 9% as investors dump the stocks amid fear of what may still be lurking on the balance sheets of banks and other financial outfits.

Citigroup (C 5.60, -1.15) is reportedly nearing a deal to sell a majority stake of its brokerage, Smith Barney, to Morgan Stanley (MS 18.79, -0.27) for $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion cash, according to Reuters. The extra cash could help Citi stem looming losses.

Financials were the worst performing sector in 2008, losing roughly 58%, and are currently the worst performing sector in 2009, currently down 13% year-to-date.

Materials (-3.6%) and energy (-3.1%) stocks also finished the session with sizeable losses. Their downturn comes amid continued concern regarding weakening demand in end markets.

As such, crude oil futures closed almost 8% lower at roughly $37.60 per barrel, which marks the lowest closing price since late December. Crude failed to break into positive territory even once during the session.

Nine of the 10 economic sectors finished with losses. The defensive-oriented utilities sector (+0.2%) was the only sector to post a gain.DJ30 -125.13 NASDAQ -32.80 NQ100 -1.8% R2K -2.6% SP400 -2.8% SP500 -20.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 645/1.79 bln/2086 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 731/1.31 bln/2362

9:04AM Amkor sees Q4 sales down 23%-25% from Q3, from previous guidance of -15% to -20% and current consensus of -21% (AMKR) 2.82 : Q4 net sales are expected to be down 23% to 25% from the third quarter of 2008 vs -21% consensus (now sees revs of $539.8-554.2 mln vs $567.24 mln consensus). Net sales will be lower than the co's previous guidance of a sequential decline of 15% to 20% announced on October 29, 2008 as a result of further weakness in consumer spending during the quarter and inventory mgmt efforts by customers. The co reaffirmed that gross margin for the Q4 of 2008 is expected to remain in its previously announced guidance range of 18% to 21%, despite the greater than anticipated sequential decline in net sales. Amkor expects that it will record an impairment charge for all or a substantial portion of its goodwill in the Q4 of 2008. During the fourth quarter of 2008 the co repurchased $78 mln aggregate principal amount of its 2.5% convertible senior subordinated notes due May 2011 and $40 mln aggregate principal amount of its 7.125% senior notes due March 2011 using $81 mln of its cash on hand. The co expects to record a pre-tax gain on extinguishment of approximately $36 mln in the quarter ended December 31, 2008. The $118 mln debt repurchase will reduce net interest expense by approximately $8 mln through maturity. It is too early for the co to provide other 2008 fourth quarter financial information and therefore, it is neither updating nor reaffirming its prior guidance regarding net income.

Don, all we need is for volume to rise above average and remain there as the market moves higher. So far that has not happened. We have seen the capitulation phase. That has moved to lower volume which means we are closer to a lasting bottom to me. What we have not seen is an higher volume buying. Not just yet but it could happen.



RtS



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42640)1/13/2009 2:54:09 PM
From: sixty2nds1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95520
 
<In any event, I have always had a hard time to correlate what to look for in terms of volume to help in making buying and selling decisions. Any discussion of addressing the volume issue by anyone on this thread would be helpful I am sure.>

Hello Don.
Your question about volume is a very good one. IMO Price is King. Many people believe Volume is just as important. I say not Not true. Volume is a distant 3rd. Risk Vs Reward is my #2, but that is another discussion.

Most think of volume in terms of number of buyers vs sellers.
It is more than that.
Somebody has to make a consession.
Either the buyer is paying up or the seller is discounting.

It has helped me to look at volume in terms of average volume. I like to use a 60 day Moving Average on a daily chart. I will use 5 weeks on a weekly and so on. The MA acts like a measuring stick for volume. It makes it easier to "see" what volume is doing....if anything.

One must always remember at least 90 of 100 charts are nothing but noise.

Our mind will tell us different. We lie to ourselves in soooo many subtle ways.
We see what we want to see.
We hear what we want to hear.
If you keep a trading/investment diary the facts expose themselves.
One will accept or reject the facts presented with the same attitude one looks in the mirror.

Later,
60