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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Xpiderman who wrote (2995)	10/23/1997 6:07:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

xyz, In 95, chip equipment companies were complaining about lack of visibility; inventories of chips were rising dramatically; and Fab capacity utilization was less than 85% perhaps less than 80%; no special conversions or migrations were getting started - rather 8" at .35u had become the mainstream. Today, companies are reporting growing backlogs, growing revenues, lowered inventories, return to traditional price action, with Fab Capacity usage above 90% and perhaps above 95%; migration to DUV and .25u is underway while INTC, Siemans are working on .18u pilot lines, 300mm wafers are imminent (i.e. the amount of time that it takes to build a new fab or less in the case of Siemans); ... Also in 95, the analysts were saying there's no slowdown (except the "hated" rick Whittington of Soundview at the time). So in comparing the today with the start of the 95 slowdown, IMO, there's nothing comparable. That doesn't mean that stock prices won't continue to go down. Let reality be your friend. Ian.