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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (84980)1/14/2009 6:49:23 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
We'll see. I think this scenario is very likely given the
policies - a recovery (thanks to huge printing and injections)
this year + a pickup of inflation. Then it all goes into
black hole along with the bonds next year. A typical post-crash
rally lasted 6-8 months. But then, of course, there is nothing
typical about what we have today, the derivative collapse. It
never happened before. Bernanke stands ready to print infinite
amounts, thou. He said so, and he'll do it. Some form of 70-s
but worse is more likely than outright great depression. -g-

Message 25322128

An interesting observation from Victor Niederhoffer - everyone
including me is counting on bond rally when stocks tank, and vice versa,
but, according to his statistics, the anticorrelation thing
happened about 50% of the time. So, shorting the bond is
actually not the same thing as being long spoos - they both
can go into the black hole together. -ggg-



To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (84980)1/14/2009 7:04:59 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
I'm still more inclined to get long this market than short.
However, one has to respect the depressed mood of the sellers
out there. The markets have crashed already, so future
direction is not clear. Just not doing anything.

Bond is a good future or current trade - maybe the Chinese won't sell
their $1 Trillion holdings, but US government sure will, and
$2 Trillion. That's a lot of bonds to sell. -g-