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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EQ who wrote (42138)	1/14/2009 1:04:35 PM
From: joefromspringfield	1 Recommendation Respond to of 42834

Elan said: That said, the three areas I fault Bob are as follows: 2) Not investigating and POSSIBLY using Inverse, Double Inverse or Triple Inverse ETFs to bail him (and his listeners) out once the damage was done. However I think Bob is probably too conservative to use these instruments and the bulk of his followers are probably too conservative and/or don’t understand Inverse ETFs. Here is what her ladyship Elaine Garzarelli said about that on The Nightly Business Report on 1 August 2008: KANGAS: Was today's report of a rise in July unemployment to a four- year high a confirmation that the U.S. economy is indeed in a recession? GARZARELLI: Well, in the domestic economy, the economy has been in a recession since the fourth quarter of last year. Now I think we're going into a recession domestically and I think that that -- and internationally, and I think that will occur in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year. KANGAS: So what does this mean for the stock market? What's the downside potential for the Dow? GARZARELLI: Well, the problem with the stock market is that the earnings from the analysts on Wall Street is much too high. Actually, it is 42 percent above my estimate and that's my specialty. I'm a corporate profit economist and 42 percent deviation is what I saw in 1987 and what I saw in 1990. KANGAS: OK. Where do are your 14 indicators stands? GARZARELLI: Well, 30 percent is a "sell" signal, which we got earlier this year; 65 percent would be a buy signal and currently they're below 50. So they've got to go quite a way up to get to 65 percent. . . . GARZARELLI: The last one for aggressive clients that want to hedge. SH, is the exchange traded fund for an inverse of the S&P. So if the S&P 500 goes down 5 percent, you buy this and it will go up 5 percent. So it does the exact opposite of the S&P 500. That's for aggressive investors or to hedge in an IRA (INAUDIBLE) . KANGAS: That's right. It's a hedging operation, a bearish fund, really? GARZARELLI: Yes. KANGAS: OK. Do you personally only any of these "buy" recommendations Elaine? GARZARELLI: No, I don't, but I do own the SH, a short. KANGAS: Just in case, you hedge your own bets. GARZARELLI: Right.