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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (42162)	1/15/2009 8:21:49 PM
From: octavian	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Skeeter Bug said: <<octavian, the overall market had been way over valued, too...>> --Right. But that doesn't mean anything. I remember people in late 1994 saying the market was overvalued and "too dangerous." Of course, we all know how those predictions turned out. (If it wasn't for brinker, I may have listened to the doom and gloomers, and stayed on the sidelines. If I had, I would still be working at age 68). <<... not the 10,000% like the internet companies, but easily by 100% - and that assumed decent times. as you know, times are currently indecent and getting much worse - fast.>> --Things look scary, but weren't we originally talking about whether brinker should have been able to avoid the bear? You're using hindsight--he had to do things using FORESIGHT. <<i'm sorry for your losses, but you were lied to and believed it.>> --Who lied to me? Why do brinker bashers think everything is a lie? Please don't make the mistake of thinking I stayed in the market because of Brinker! << as fleckenstein has said, the market isn't a kitten that doles out cash with regularity, it is a tiger and it will eat you alive. it always has been.>> --You're preaching to the choir here. I was on a financial message board in the mid-late 90s, telling all the raging bulls that a huge bear was coming, sooner or later. They laughed at my worries, they laughed at my diversification, they laughed at my value funds. "Diversification is for fools," said one fool, who once posted that he had sold a tech fund because he was disappointed with the results (up 'only' 100% in 10 months)! True story! << when the pe ratios on the market is about double historical averages at the top of the business cycle, run for the doors.>> --Then I take it you were out of the market during all or most of the great 95-99 bull? <<right now i'm betting on massive inflation in 6 month to 2 year time frame.>> --Great! Finally we have a prediction from you, instead of hindsight. <<i have some gold, i'm in TBT, i have some oil and i'm keeping my eyes open for other opportunities.>> --I have some gold, some other precious metals, and a commodities fund. They're killing me! If we don't get runaway inflation soon, I'm dead! -:) <<if i had gotten caught by the bear and wanted to stay invested, i'd make sure my investments were the highest quality, lowest risk and paid good sized dividends. I'd probably sell some calls as long as i thought the stock was in a trading range and if it got called away i'd only by back on a fall in price.>> --Good advice, IMO. Maybe I should sell all my commodities related stuff now, AFTER a 60% dive, and get into something less risky!!! -:) (Seriously, I do think your advice is good).