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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (42174)	1/17/2009 2:14:56 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	1 Recommendation Respond to of 42834

Kirk, it depends on what you mean by "time the market." let me give you an example. i was given a sizeable chunk of change in 2000. i could've invested in the stock market or pay off a rental condo. i "timed the market" and paid off the condo as i didn't like the risk reward at that price. i did quite well by "timing the market." in addition, i have not been dollar cost averaging into the market, so i'm not sitting on massive losses like most folks. if you dollar cost averaged into the S&P since 1998, you have a sizeable negative return right now - you lost your behind. i valued the market and decided it was too high. i'm doing much better than the guy who dollar cost averaged into the biggest bubble market in history. i have a friend who made $500k during 1999. he lost $500k in 2000 and will take that $3k over losses for a loooooooooooooong time. he didn't do any kind of valuation. he also bought a rental property in 2005 while i was advising anyone that cared to stay the heck away from the real estate market. a coworker bought anyway and he's down $100k+ and recently took a sizeable pay cut after being laid off. another coworker told his friend he wasn't interested in going 50% into a rental investment property in 2007. his friend bought and will almost assuredly lose the home. his friend hasn't returned calls in almost 2 months. yes, you can put reasonable valuations on things and yes it does pay handsomely to do so. although, it might take a while for it to pan out. at the top of the bubbles i had to put up with all kinds of "get on the train, choo choo!" crap from friends making lots of cash. their train eventually crashed because they didn't do any kind of valuation analysis.