Worst for banks may be past: Gross
reuters.com
Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:46pm EST
By Jennifer Ablan and John Parry
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The greatest damage to bank balance sheets from the financial crisis may be over, but the worst for the real economy lies ahead, Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said on Friday.
Gross, founder and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co, told Reuters there is a need to do whatever is required to get banks lending again, and that to stem more waves of bank losses, U.S. house prices must find a bottom.
"We have probably seen the worst of the credit crisis from the standpoint of the banking balance sheets, to the extent that they've already received a lot of capital and are going to get some more," said Gross, in an interview via video link from Pimco's headquarters in Newport Beach, California, .
The U.S. government late on Thursday said it would inject $20 billion in fresh capital into Bank of America and provide a backstop against $118 billion of bad assets it holds to help it absorb the acquisition of brokerage Merrill Lynch.
That was just the latest move by the U.S. government to pump money into battered financial companies amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
But even as Gross said he thinks bank balance sheets will not see even greater harm, he warned the worst may not be over for the credit markets. The damage to corporate bond markets is far from over, with high-yield bonds at particular risk of rising defaults, Gross said.
"We haven't seen the worst of it from the standpoint of defaults, in terms of the high-yield market and small corporations, layoffs in terms of individuals, higher unemployment rates," Gross said, adding, "The worst is ahead for the real economy."
Economists and investors have widely said that an upturn in the housing market is critical for United States' economic growth. Fourth-quarter gross domestic product is expected to contract by more than 5 percent.
Still, Gross said he is not bearish on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), despite having trimmed his $132 billion flagship fund's holdings of these securities in December.
"Our mortgage-backed securities holdings are still significant," Gross said. "We have a 4 to 4.5 percent yield from them versus 1 to 2 percent or 2.5 percent in the Treasury market -- and we also have, of course, a willing buyer from the standpoint of the U.S. Treasury down the road over the next six months."
The Pimco Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond mutual fund, reported sharply reduced holdings of mortgage-backed securities in December based on market value, while cash and Treasury investments rose, according to the fund's website.
Investments in MBS issued by companies such as Fannie Mae (FNM.N) fell to 62 percent of the fund's portfolio last month from 81 percent in November, a chart showed.
"Mortgages represent a safe haven, high quality, decent carry, yielding investment for us," Gross said. "There hasn't been much in the way of liquidation."
Asked whether he was concerned about some analysts' view that the Treasury market is in a bubble, Gross told Reuters that U.S. government securities would still find demand given the anemic economic growth.
"There is a large concern, of course, that foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds will at some point have a rather full plate of Treasuries," he said. "We have a situation here over the next 12 months I think where there are a number of possible buyers for these trillions of dollars of Treasuries that are going to be issued and ultimately the buyer of last resort, yes, will be the Federal Reserve."
He also said he considered Treasury Inflation Protected Securities attractive, with real yields of about 2 percent.
Gross said the U.S. government should return to the original intent of the Troubled Asset Relief Program to buy tarnished assets, adding that Pimco is in a good position to advise the government on purchases of subprime mortgage-related assets.
On U.S. municipal bonds, Gross said he expected the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama to unveil a substantial assistance package to municipalities over the next one to three weeks. Municipal bonds yielding between 5.5 percent and 6 percent are an "extraordinary opportunity" for investors, he said.
(Additional by Daniel Burns and Al Yoon; Editing by Leslie Adler) |
