sampler of today's in/out-tray contents
(1) i agree, municipal bonds are very dangerous. their yields do not properly reflect the default risks.
as to BAC, which is now choking on its ill-advised acquisitions - this reminds me that JPM also has two such acquisitions under its belt (BSC and WM) - while partly shielded from losses via arrangements with Fed and FDIC, the risks are still high. especially if the future should turn out to be 'worse than expected' (the phrase that lately gets repeated over and over again, whenever fresh economic data hit the wires).
(2) imo before this is all over a big portion (if not all) of the global financial system will be nationalised...the US is merely at the forefront b/c its system was most vulnerable on account of the toxic loans and leverage. But others are not far behind.
Once that happens, the depression will really kick in
then anarchy, civil wars followed by dictatorships
Some conutries may cease to exist altogether
then one world currency which ends in a world govt
I give it 5-7 years if not earlier
Enjoy the last few days of global warming and political and economic freedom
(3) assuming that such large scale upheaval occurs, could it not conceivably also go the other way? i.e., a fracturing of the modern nation states into smaller units, instead of further centralization? this is at least what i would hope for, since it would represent more choice.
Lew Rockwell argues that the trend of ever-growing state power may be on the verge of reversing, not least because of the free and speedy exchange of information via the internet.
mises.org
(4) Austria, btw, imo shoudl be just fine
(5) don't say that - 1. Austria has a bad (recent) history (red on the outside, brown on the inside, to color it politically) 2. the current crop of politicians and bureaucrats , in my assessment, is a step down quality-wise even from the previous batch, which was bad enough. there's no telling what these idiots will think of, given enough incentive.
the biggest bonus, as far as i can tell, is that the country is small and unimportant, which tends to hold ambitions in check.
(6) the last point is why it should be fine plus it is neutral and has great skiing
(7) this morning's e-mail reads are darker than usual.
you guys are talking particularly sexy today - breakups, weapons, farms, red shirts over brown t-shirts, etc, the unusual, and, oh, the usual municipal debt and banks - and
one of you sends me a private message about the imminent arrival of yet another batch platinum to be parcelled out and transport cost shared, fresh from the safety of the money rock alps to the security of freedom rock hong kong, and
i get another message from my architect cousin just made redundant from the largest firm in town, 200 folks out of 800 employees, due to work in hedonic macau and dubai having been hammered down to zero, and the firm had not gotten paid by the wonderful developers of dubai since 1st quarter of last year. their macau group is down from about a hundred to 2 people, so
i guess this is what the Darkest Interregnum may be all about, today multiplied by 1825 more days.
(8) I have, 22 acres with pond (has bass in it) 90 mi north of SF in th Sonoma Hills w own well that produces 7-8 gpm even in dry season
Only need 10-12 in of rain to keep pond full and well functioning (35-40 is normal)
Vegetable garden that can feed 3 families, room for chickens.
Plenty of farmes and wine growers as friends so we won't starve and can wash down assorted foods with delicious wine.
1000 gal propane tank for cooking and heating plus generator to provide all our electricity for 3 weeks if the grid shuts down
4 wood fired stoves to stay warm/cook if we run out of fuel...plenty of wood
assorted lethal weaponry for the abundant wildlife around these parts
Boy Scout motto: prepare for the worst, hope for the best.....
(9) Sounds just about perfect whatever comes
Don't give this crowd the address , as you might get descended upon.
(10) Except for expropriation!
(11) should the lights get turned off during the Darkest Interregnum, we have plans in place to either de-camp for friend's utah ranch where my coconut can ride ponies or make way to friend's philippine pearl farm protected by some sort of private army constituted out of local ex-marines where my coconut can learn to scuba dive and clean the oysters.
in the mean time, my wife, like most wives, not fully understanding the situation, seems to be making easter plans for erita to get exposed to snow for the first time, in some lost place named lech, to be followed by spa treatment somewhere in germany, to be joined by her equally clueless classmates and their kids, then some shopping in paris for the next season's attire.
we husbands are assured that wifi broadband will be available at all locations so that we can keep track of what may be happening to us in nominal and real terms.
my in-law just called to chat about the markets and such, unusual for saturday morning 8:30am, and tells me one family in repulsebay just sold their abode for 400m hkd due to damage from implosion in the toy business and equity arena.
the casualties are piling up and the war just got started. frightening.
recommendation: buy gold, and hedge with platinum - one or both might do ok in the course of zero-state monetary reset and hyperinflation fiscal resuscitation.
gold might be what the officialdom needs at some sorry juncture, and platinum is what everyone must have almost at every step of the tragic way. platinum is needed for peace and war.
in hk we are used to financial crisis this and debt disaster that, and have gotten quite good at taking advantage of the time when the lights in the already dim bar gets shut down, to slash and grope, per our predisposition, depending on who and what we are standing next to when the lights get off-ed.
in china we have learned much about confiscation, over enough generations (we are slow learners) and know that the expropriation act is part of all sorry scripts.
there is much the current generations of americans will be learning as events turn progressively ever more dire, and at some point realizing that there is no ordained path, no promised way, and that the experiment that was america has already been so twisted out of shape over a 200 years party that it is a brand new trial and error. afterall, all nations go mad once every so often, and the time for renewal of faith must be nigh.
final destination, argentina, by way of japan and via zimbabwe, for it is just fiat money inflation mathe.
(12) so boracay is not an option?
darn.
(13) the confiscation on boracay already started ultimaresidences.com two years ago, because wastrel philippines learned from wastrel usa, much from harvard, from the finer points of mob democracy to convoluted laws to twisty spins, and just does it all with a greater sense of humor and lesser sense of shame.
(14) the 224 year empire cycle at work (peaked 1999 or thereabouts for US) - Martin has done some good work on civilization cycles
now 72 years of decline and if it survives, perhaps another upleg
But that version of the US likely wont' be anything we will be able to recognize
(15) let us watch and brief on this fractal-scaled down empirelette and see if it survives against the attack of its betters - for freedom is under attack
bloomberg.com
British Tax Haven’s Safety, Secrecy Face Brown, Obama Challenge
some programs that help to pass the rapidly slowing times. cheers, j
(i) Subject: fresh new documentary just released on american public television today
pbs.org
pbs.org
(ii) Political and Economic Risks for 2009: RGE/Eurasia Conference Call
Nouriel Roubini | Jan 16, 2009
As the world enters 2009 facing the first global recession, Bremmer and Roubini aim to identify a comprehensive view of the challenges ahead—bringing together their expertise on global politics and economics.
On 5 January, Eurasia Group released its Top Risks for 2009, in which the firm identified the key geopolitical areas to watch for global investors and market participants. The US Congress, which may enact legislative or regulatory changes that could have significant impacts on business prospects, was ranked as the #1 risk. (For more information on the Top Risks, please visit www.eurasiagroup.net.)
RGE Monitor is preparing to release its 2009 Global Outlook in mid-January, and this conversation will provide a preview of some of the key economic risks that investors need to watch.
Below are a few key points that will be addressed in the call:
Amid the most severe US and global recession of the postwar period, global growth is likely to be negligible in 2009. In the face of this severe global downturn and financial market stress, there will be unprecedented levels of political risk as governments increase their intervention in the economy in the hope of boosting growth.
In recent years, politically driven risks to markets have been most prominent in emerging markets. These countries continue to face these types of risk, but for the first time in many years, political and regulatory risk will have a dramatic impact in developed industrial democracies.
The United States is only halfway through a recession that started in December 2007 and will be the longest and most severe in the postwar period. President-elect Obama’s economic team is first rate, cohesive, and pro-globalization—but with Democratic majorities in Congress, the risks of overregulation are significant. While a large fiscal package to support growth is a priority, the US economy cannot avoid a severe contraction that has already started. The policy response will have only a limited and delayed effect that will be felt more in 2010 than 2009.
Europe and Japan will both contract 2.5% in 2009. With the industrial world already in outright recession and the emerging world navigating toward a hard landing, we expect global growth to be flat (around 0%) in 2009.
Also was Roubini on CNBC
cnbc.com |
