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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (48)	1/17/2009 12:58:16 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Respond to of 3605

LLCF, Since the post that you responded to was deleted (because I had put a link in it.....I recently found out I'm not supposed to do that), let me again say that I took no offense to your suggestion that I was wasting my time following Bob Brinker's Moneytalk and reporting on his latest hocus-pocus. I receive lots of emails and lots of comments which tell me that many appreciate having a place where Brinker's true, and complete!, record is available. (I intend to provide an ongoing record here, too.) Just this morning, someone sent these comments: "So he's not a market timing genius. But if you look at his standard model alone, he saved his clients a lot of money with his 2000 exit and 2003 re-entrance calls. That ain't bad. I replied: "Yes, in year-2000, Brinker advised his clients to put 65% of stock market money into cash reserves. That was a good call, but not a true "bear market" call. Now let's be totally honest here and remember that he advised that 20%-50% of those cash reserves be used to buy QQQQ at $83 in October 2000. The shares then lost over 70% of NAV. He has NEVER closed that trade! Then in March 2003, Brinker recommended returning all remaining cash reserves to the market at S&P 807. That was a good call because the market rose all the way to 1565 in October, 2007. But now the BIG OOPS! In 2008, the market did a complete round trip all the way back to BELOW the 2003 buy level -- AND BRINKER HAD HIS CLIENTS REMAIN FULLY INVESTED FOR THE WHOLE ROUND TRIP. .