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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: joefromspringfield who wrote (57)	1/17/2009 10:16:02 AM
From: BFree	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3605

That is fascinating Joe. Notice in Brinker's marketiming scheme for forcasting a bear market--there is ZERO correlation to his modeling and what has transpired to cause this bear market. He was as clueless then as he was at "the mid 1400s" in the last year when he urged subscribers to "go all in". His 1380 and low 1300 and low 1200 calls were just as lame. Now if there was a bulletin to buy he is claiming his model that missed the bear market and according to his words at that conference was not prepared to predict anything like we have experiened in this bear market --he is simply flailing away to find some base to claim he called after many failures. Now Brinker in that appearance and at other times pretends he has an estimate of earnings for the 500 largest companies in the country and applies a multiple to it and comes up with his forecasted market level. In this time I would offer that only an idiot would claim he can forecast earnings of the 500 largest companies for the next year. We don't know how many of the 500 largest companies will be left standing. Will there be a Citibank? A Bank of America? Will any large bank have earnings? They made up 35% of the market cap last year. What will happen with the automotive bailout? Fail? Succeed? A difference in a few million jobs. What will Obama's health care mean to Pharma? What will Pelosi's tax increases mean to investors? Too many questions to give a simple answer. But Brinker's jive is made to market to people who are not deep thinkers and buy into his all seeing jibberish. What do you Brinker subscribers think of claiming he has found something, when it is the spot from which he took off 6 years ago?

To: joefromspringfield who wrote (57)	1/17/2009 10:49:48 AM
From: EQ	Respond to of 3605

> Elan > This link provides the name of the person who attended the charity event and transcribed it. If you desire any additional information I suggest you email David Korn. He has always answered any question I have ask him. Joe, Thank you! I see that Peter is a subscriber to Davids Newsletter: >> David Korn asked his subscriber, Peter, to write a "summary, interpretation and commentary" of Brinker's San Jose appearance. That being the case, I would not want to put David on the spot by asking him to detail the professional credentials of this correspondent he refers to as Peter (no last name.) Elan

To: joefromspringfield who wrote (57)	1/17/2009 3:24:08 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3605

Joe, Here's another interesting excerpt from Bob Brinker's live appearance at the San Jose Cure-a-thon in 2005. Brinker talked about his market-timing model and what's in it: David Korn wrote all of the following: Peter: Bob then discussed what he looks at in his stock market timing model. He looks at (1) Economic Cycles; (2) Monetary Policy; (3) Valuation; and, (4) Sentiment. Bob said with respect to Monetary Policy, the Fed doesn't want to "rock the boat" by raising rates too much for fear of homeowners being unable to make their monthly mortgage payments. Bob said there is currently no problem with the Valuation Indicator (EC: see above) and that Sentiment is exciting to watch, especially the 60-day moving average of the put-call ratio. Currently, that stands at 0.82 which is a bullish indicator. EC: I updated all of the sentiment data that I believe Bob follows in his model. The 60-day put/call moving average is actually up to 0.84 which is better as far as Bob's timing model is concerned as it indicates even more fear then when Bob last checked it. I suspect he got the number of 0.82 based on last Monday's close which is when Bob conducts the weekly update of his timing model. EC#2: Another of Bob's favorite sentiment data points is the Investor's Intelligence Survey." .