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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (77)	1/18/2009 3:44:25 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Respond to of 3605

Hi Boca Pete, I'm sure not BFree and I would never speak for him, but I really enjoyed reading your thought-filled comments, and would like to put in my two-cents worth. You asked: "During recent days on the cable biz channels I heard Barton Biggs and other investment pundits opining that "an area around 800 ... as a great entry level here in anticipation of a large bear market rally during 2009". Are they wrong too?" My answer is that I sure hope they are NOT wrong, just as I hope Brinker is NOT wrong this time. Of course, I also truly hoped Brinker was NOT wrong with his mid-1400, low-1300, low-to-mid-1300, low-1200's all-new-money-in buy-levels. You asked: "Is Brinker wrong now only because he stayed fully invested all the way down from the highs recommending what he saw as buy opportunities at various stages of the market's decline? Not in my opinion. One thing has nothing to do with the other. The fact that he did a round-trip fully invested, in no way precludes him from recognizing the bottom of this mega-bear market -- even though he's already found two other bottoms that got carried out with the piano player. You asked: "Does this imply Brinker will be wrong from now on, or, for some unspecified period of time until you deem he has a second chance to make a correct future turning point call?" Again, not in my opinion. It's not logical to say that just because he has never successfully (and totally) called a bear market, that he never will. But based on his history of less than half of his market-timing calls being correct, the odds are that most of his calls will be wrong. "YOU CAN LEARN SO MUCH FROM HISTORY"____Bob Brinker . .

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (77)	1/20/2009 8:14:11 PM
From: BFree	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3605

Sorry Boca I missed your response. I am sorry if my characterization of paying Bob Brinker for his marketiming advice upset you. You have every right to pay him as much as you want and I understand if you really believe he has great insight into the market he also will invest your money for you for a fee. I really didn't mean to step on toes of those who think paying for his information is somehow helpful to them. I am just personally amazed that anyone still pays him after watching the failures and spin that has characterized his track record. I do appreciate your comments and will respond to them. <<During recent days on the cable biz channels I heard Barton Biggs and other investment pundits opining that "an area around 800 ... as a great entry level here in anticipation of a large bear market rally during 2009". Are they wrong too?>> Yes many have said that the market is oversold. Of course they said that quite a while ago as well. I read now that Bob Brinker gave his bottom signal at 844. If I am not mistaken Bob Brinker is still on record that we are in a "bull market" in contrast to Mr. Biggs who is looking for a "bear market rally". Bob Brinker has never swapped back to being a bear and claiming that he is trying to call a bear market rally has he? <<Is Brinker wrong now only because he stayed fully invested all the way down from the highs recommending what he saw as buy opportunities at various stages of the market's decline? Does this imply Brinker will be wrong from now on, or, for some unspecified period of time until you deem he has a second chance to make a correct future turning point call?>> No I didn't say Brinker was wrong when I posted that; The reason that Brinker will be right or wrong will depend on what the market does. My wonderment was at who in the world would follow his call for a bottom when he had found a bottom at what, Boca? 1450, 1380, 1300 low 1200s and now issued a sweeping call at 844? When you have a market down now about 50% and you were bullish at the top and all the way down and called buying opportunities down at about 10% , 20% , 30% and 35% and then call another one nearing 50% down (not mentioning the 4 or more previous attempts) it is much like the boy who cried wolf. <<Do you think that "market timing' could be compared to an "at-bat" in baseball whereby the pitch (fast ball, curve, knuckle ball, slider...) is made, and, the batter (you) either strike out, or, the batter (you) get a hit in the form of a single, double, triple, or homerun (you are on board for a profitable investment experience with the investment vehicle of your choice)? In baseball, every at bat is an opportunity, you know. With investing, Brinker could be viewed as "The Manager" or "coach" giving followers signals from the bench - swing, take, bunt, hit for the fences. He could be wrong at any time. You could be wrong at any time for not following and executing on his signals. If he fails to perform up to expectation, he could get fired by you or management at any time.>> Any normal thinking person imo who knows his record and his spin would have fired him long ago. But there is certainly nothing wrong with betting on a long shot and thinking that his continued poor performance and less than straightforward reporting means that "he's due". I think Brinker's marketiming has been shown that it should more aptly be compared to a fortune teller who fools some people in believing he is a seer with slick talking. Best wishes and profitable investing. Right back at ya. By the way I agree with your take on Libby Bob's politics. I understand that is what he talks about these days for the most part on the radio. I'd be curious Boca, do you think he avoids talking about the market and marketiming these days because he is afraid his listeners might get his very important bullish stance all the way down and multiple bottom calls just like his subscriber and similarly benefit from them or is he just embarassed and pretending he didn't ride the elevator up to 1575 and all the way back down to where he got on many years ago?