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Gold/Mining/Energy : Mining News of Note -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LoneClone who wrote (31390)	1/19/2009 8:41:34 PM
From: LoneClone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196200

Bloomsbury says this year will be one of worse on record for copper Bloomsbury Minerals Economics forecasts copper prices will hover below $3,000 tonne through most of 2009 with a strong recovery in 2011 after slow improvement in 2010. Author: Dorothy Kosich Posted: Monday , 19 Jan 2009 RENO, NV - mineweb.com Following marginal refined copper use, Bloomsbury Minerals Economics' Paul Dewison forecasts that this year will be one of the worst years on record. However, while 2009 is set to be "a pretty dismal year, prices will recover," he added. In a recent presentation to the Scotia Capital Conference in Toronto, Dewison forecast that copper prices will hover below $3.000 tonne through most of 2009 with a strong recovery in 2011 after slow improvement in 2010. He also predicted that when economic recovery comes from late 2009 onward, the strength of the recovery will depend on the strength of the copper consumption rebound and supplier response. "With such a deep a deep trough in consumption in 2009 as predicted, the rebound is likely to be strong," he advised. As new mine project schedules and existing mining production was slashed in 2008, Dewison's research determined that the "downturn has also affected projects further projects into the future...Together with production restraint from existing mines and at smelters this will have a major effect on future output of refined metal." Bloomsbury predicts this year will be a lean year for new copper projects. While both copper production and consumption growth is expected to turn positive in the first quarter of 2010, Dewison asserted that "year on year growth will be much greater in consumption...Large production gains are expected to be delayed until late in 2010 or early 2011." "With repeated market surpluses between Q3 2008 and Q1 2010, total stocks are expected to grow massively-by 0.9 Mt in the main case, 1.2 Mt in the pessimistic case. With sharper recovery and more muted supply response, the subsequent stock fall is expected to be greatest in the pessimistic case," he added. "Early indications are that while supplier response to the demand downturn will not be strong enough to prevent a large stock build, it will be much stronger than in past recessions. As a result, the stock build will be more modest considering the background," Dewison said. With lower copper prices, Dewison advised the "costs of production will inevitably fall. If the strong recovery in prices predicted for 2011/2012 is to be achieved, suppliers will need to hold off from too early investment in new capacity."