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Technology Stocks : Data Dimensions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: K MAC who wrote (3375)10/24/1997 12:09:00 PM
From: Staff  Respond to of 4571
 
K..

The entire Y2K sector is based around the year's 1997-1998-1999.
VIAS originally was looked upon by many (including myself) as the most legitimate when it came to being a "VIABLE ENTITY" when you stripped the hype away.

They were viable because they had a pretty robust consulting business before this millenium mania all started.

Folks seem to forget that before the mania, DDIM was little more that a "working out of the back of your house" consulting firm. The long term tangible side of their business was and remains miniscule.

My guess is that even the biggest of bulls would have a hard time arguing that if it were not for the Y2K scare .. DDIM today would be nothing more than a liitle abscure consulting company.

The hard reality that everyone knows about but seems to be burying their heads in the sand to, is that sometime in the 1999-2000 time frame, DDIM will revert back the same peanut size consulting company that had a hard time coming out at $4.00/share.

At present they are climbing the ladder to in hopes of grabbing the pot of Y2K mania riches at the end of the rainbow.

Seems like wallstreet is so frantic about getting a peice of the DDIM pie that they fail to see the ladder is burning from the bottom .

As they say.. the millenium will eventually come and with it the end of the party.

Then what do they do?

How do they cover the overhead they have created for themselves?
How do they hold on to their key people?

It's one thing being a part of a management team for a large growth company but what if that company reverts back to a little consulting company?

Or like the band, do they just take down all the equipment pack it up and go home saying.. great gig!

The key remains when is the last dance as it where.

When the time ticker finally says 2000... the ladder runs out of steps the last song is announced and the bartender says.. folks.. you can drink all night you just can't drink here... go home!!

The stock market is an anticipatory animal.
The street is not going to wait till Dec. 31st 1999 to pull the plug on DDIM proclaiming

1)The Y2K black plague is over.
2)The computers of the world are declared officially safe.
3) Its safe to get on a plane again!

The day eventually comes. Even the outer limits give your TV control back ofter 60 minutes :-)

Life as we know it will go on.

No... as I say.. the market anticipates. Maybe 6 months in advance, maybe a year. or

Maybe they disappoint next quarter and just wrap the party up early ...

The key is how far in advance the street will decide anticipate

At a 200 plus multiple one has to wonder if it's worth hangin around hoping it isn't the last dance

From the looks of ZITL and VIAS, the main players in the game are not planning to wait around long. Earning can't dissapoint in the Y2K gameor your toast.

Larry jnows this as well as anyone. Creative accounting is a great tool when you know you can rob Peter to pay Paul today because the books only have to look good for the next 3 years anyway.
One thing Larry does well is give everyone what they want to hear.

BUT.. if they don't like the next song( earning) Larry serves up ..the DDIM band may be blowing this gig earlier than anticipated.