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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Warrants Only -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shakes who wrote (6913)	1/20/2009 10:26:41 PM
From: PaperPerson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23102

tbt = UltraShort Lehman 20+ Trsy ProShares this fund is a leveraged upside bet that the government of the u.s. will have to pay very high rates to refinance its debts. when the rates the govt has to pay finally do soar, which they will, existing govt long term bonds will truly crash. that would make this fund jump like a bunny in clover. i don't know. to me it kinda makes kinross k-wtc warrants (c$6.04) look safe. ($32 strike, sept. 2013 exp, with the stock nine bucks out of the money at $23.00. but i can see how you could make a lot of money on it. michael

To: shakes who wrote (6913)	1/21/2009 1:33:27 AM
From: onepath	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23102

Follow closely HTD.T which is a Cdn. version of U.S. 30 year bond ETF(bear)...have not done anything with it yet mainly as I can see to many other variables (worldwide) that might keep the U.S. dollar stronger for longer...so strong gold and dollar may continue till all the crap comes out.Also for these 2x levered ETF's I want to be sure that the trend is confirmed other wise they seem to eat my money. Weird today that HTD.T was down and TBT was up (Cdn dollar down) so I need to see a confirmed rise in the Cdn. dollar also. So gold my first choice and gold miners in safer locations at the moment.

To: shakes who wrote (6913)	1/22/2009 10:35:49 PM
From: PaperPerson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23102

hi shakes -- just thought you might like to know that the aden sisters like your tbt idea right now. they mention it in their weekly update of wednesday night. saying good time to buy it. also, i saw this on the wires dated today. it kind of explains the play for those still trying to get their heads around it (like me). regards, michael Options volume pops in ETF that bets against bonds Thu Jan 22, 2009 7:00pm EST By Doris Frankel CHICAGO, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Option volume in an exchange-traded fund that gains when long-term Treasury bonds fall swelled on Thursday as some players appeared to be betting the recent sell-off in U.S. government debt is overdone and that bond yields will fall. Shares of the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury TBT.P ETF rose 2.87 percent to $44.07. That's a gain of about 24 percent from a low of $35.51 in mid-December. The ETF is designed to go up when long-term Treasury bond yields rise and to fall when bond yields drop. The fund's daily performance is double the opposite of Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index TLT.P, which tracks the daily return of long-term Treasuries. Long-dated Treasury prices fell sharply on Thursday on worries about ballooning government borrowing and remarks by Treasury Secretary nominee Timothy Geithner that were critical of China, the largest foreign holder of Treasuries. In the cash market, the 30-year Treasury bond <US30YT=RR> fell more than 9 points in price over the past four sessions, pushing its yield, which moves inversely to price, up 39 basis points to 3.26 percent. According to option analytics firm Trade Alert, options volume in the TBT was four times the normal level as about 27,000 calls and 9,728 puts traded with most of the activity in the February contract. Some of that involved spread activity. "We see a vertical spread trade, with the purchase of 2,500 February $40 puts and the sale of the same number of February $36 puts," said Chris McKhann, an analyst at Web information site optionmonster.com. This would indicate that an investor is looking for a drop in the fund's shares to at least the $36 level by February options expiration, he said. He noted that traders also purchased the February $45 calls, with almost 8,000 contracts in that strike traded near the close in what appeared to be a spread against the June $51 calls. Essentially, what the trader is looking for is a continued rise in the fund's share price and a subsequent drop in the fund's options implied volatility, a key component of an options price, he said. Typically when shares of a security rise, its option implied volatililty falls. "This is a complex trade that is hedged, but has a bullish bias and can profit from a drop in the funds implied volatility," McKhann said.