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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (11402)	1/20/2009 4:12:34 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I echo your sentiments there. But not real hopeful. lj

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (11402)	1/20/2009 4:51:06 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

FWIW, I do have some thoughts on President Obama. 1. Obama and his policies will make little or no difference in the direction of the economy. The bailout of the insolvent banking system will continue, but that was already in progerss. Keynesian policies do not work in this once in a century economic and deflationary meltdown. 2. While re-deploying troops from Iraq to Afghanistan seems a good strategy, it will end up moving troops from one quagmire to another. The war in Afghanistan cannot be won with the Pakistani military behind the Taliban, which they indeed are. Stability in Pakistan is far more important than victory in Afghanistan. Obama will need to find a way out of that mess without disrupting the entire balance in that area. Things will likely go back to how they were in early 2001 in that area, with Pakistan more radicalized and their government without strong and respected central leadership. 3. Obama cannot facilitate land for peace between Israel and Palestine. The Israeli lobby is too powerful, and few want that problem to go away. The status quo serves too many interests - Israel militarily and economically, Egypt likewise, and the US and Israel are handy scapegoats for the civilian populations under corrupt regimes in the Middle East. 4. Obama will likely emerge as one of the most skilled politicians ever to be elected to the presidency during trying times. He has more in common with the more Americans than any previous US president. He also has more in common with people outside American than previous presidents. That bond should enable him to navigate wise decisions that advance our causes while strengthening our relations everywhere. He also has a wife that keeps him grounded much like Abagail Adams did to John Adams. He scores in the middle of the narcicism scale, which is very rare for someone who ascends to the highest elected office in the USA. It will remain to be seen if he grows a big head in the office like FDR did during his second term and makes grave over-reaching errors. I think he will avoid that, but we don't know. His intelligence and decision making process are a great asset for a leader in his position. So far his ability to inspire will enable him to receive a much longer pass than most anyone else who would be in his position. His earnestness to heal the country will go a long ways towards earning good will politically. 5. The Obama-Clinton honeymoon period should be closely watched. The nomination of Hillary Clinton to Sec of State gives her a chance to be in a position with much more power and visibility than a junior senator from New York while allowing her and Bill to live separate lives. However, I think it is going to be very hard to expect both Clintons to remain in line with the President's policies. One or both of them will probably blow. They are not a good match for Obama, and the Sec of State position was likely his quid-pro-quo for their support going into the democratic convention. FWIW, I thought Obama's speech today was great. It will be interesting to see how long it will be before people realize Obama can't really do jack about the economy. It could take years before they know, just like in the aftermath of the Great Depression.