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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42832)	1/20/2009 5:23:38 PM
From: Pam	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95525

I agree that WFR earnings and revenue outlook will almost certainly be coming down further in the near future. How far, of course, is always the question. And there is "room" for WFR price to not get hit too hard when these estimates do come down assuming they do not go through the floor. Don, if WFR's estimates were already low relative to their current stock price, I wouldn't expect much downside. Since most analysts are still very optimistic about WFRs earnings estimates, they haven't capitulated and the stock will head lower when the company issues new guidance and analysts lower their own estimates to be in sync with the management outlook. Of course, most of the damage is already done but the decline hasn't run its course until that capitulation happens and low estimates are in place. From what I understand is they have lots of cash and they are a very big player in their sector. More like an INTC as opposed to a MTSN(my apologies to MTSN;-). That should help them get through this coming nasty period. They do have over a billion dollars in cash but being a big player like INTC is in microprocessor industry cannot be further from the truth! Last time I checked, they had high single digit to low double digit (9-12%) market share and Hemlock and Wacker supposedly have a far superior cost structure compared to WFR. By the way some of that lofty Cash is already called for, for the expansion WFR undertook in expanding their capacity.