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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (45527)	1/21/2009 2:22:09 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217882

more friedman of stratfor, still oblivious to the dire circumstances too obvious to any and all players of the board game RISK Geopolitical Diary: A Russian Message to Washington, By Way of Kabul January 20, 2009 Afghan President Hamid Karzai's office released a letter Monday revealing Russia's readiness to provide "broad" military assistance to Afghanistan. The letter, written by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, was Moscow's response to a request for aid that Karzai had reportedly made in November 2008. Medvedev's letter was intentionally vague, simply stating that defense cooperation between Moscow and Kabul would be "effective for both countries" and "for establishing peace in the region." The letter also calls for Moscow and Kabul to specify the grounds for cooperation moving forward. Though the letter itself didn't say much, the timing of its release is absolutely critical. Russia was sending a very deliberate message to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama on the eve of his inauguration. The top issues on Obama's foreign policy agenda will involve turning the war around in Afghanistan and dealing with a resurgent Russia. The Russians are essentially signaling to Obama that if he expects any progress on the former, he is going to have to concede quite a lot on the latter. Whether Russia is working to tear down a pro-Western government in Ukraine or sabotage Europe's alternative energy projects, trying to reduce the United States' military presence in Central Asia or finding new ways to damage NATO's credibility, Moscow would much rather Washington stay out of its way - or better yet, facilitate Moscow's moves - as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin methodically works to tighten the Kremlin's grip on the former Soviet sphere of influence. The Russians recognize that the war in Afghanistan is not going well for the Americans, and that the United States is prepared to invest considerable time and resources for a revised military campaign led by Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus. If the Russians can insert themselves into the Afghanistan equation, where U.S. military interests are currently concentrated, the more leverage Moscow will gain relative to the United States on issues deemed vital to Moscow's interests. The Russians already have a number of options in Afghanistan. For a variety of reasons, Pakistan has become more and more difficult for the United States to rely on as a military supply route into Afghanistan. Consequently, the U.S. military has little choice but to develop an alternative. While there are several variations on the theme, the alternative route likely would traverse Central Asian territory that is under Moscow's control — if not Russian territory itself. Petraeus is currently on a tour through Central Asia to work out details on this alternate supply line, but if the White House wants Petraeus' Afghanistan strategy to bear fruit, it will need Russian cooperation, which will not come for free. But Putin isn't stopping at the Afghan border. Afghanistan is familiar territory for the Russians - territory that they have viewed as part of their geopolitical cordon. Even after Russia fought its own bloody war with the Afghans, Moscow developed close ties with members of the Northern Alliance - an ethnic Tajik-dominated coalition that Russia and Iran have supported against the Pashtun-dominated Taliban. The Russians, who have a strong interest in containing the Taliban and preventing the spread of radical Islamist doctrine into the Muslim-populated regions of Russia, relied heavily on the Northern Alliance to retain a foothold in this region while the Taliban was still in power. Moreover, Russia has expanded its influence in Afghanistan to include links to some Pashtun tribes between Kabul and Kandahar that belonged to the secular Communist movement, which ruled Afghanistan for 14 years before Islamist forces took over in 1992. It was not too long ago that the United States was forced to recognize Russian influence in Afghanistan. During preparations for the U.S. invasion in 2001, Washington relied on Moscow and the Russian-supported Northern Alliance to facilitate the invasion and topple the Taliban. But at that time, Putin's resurgence strategy was still in its infancy. More importantly, Putin believed that the Americans would turn a blind eye to Moscow's strategy in the former Soviet Union in return for its help in Afghanistan. Eight years later, Russia is more unified, stronger, determined and better positioned to demand much more from the Americans in return for its cooperation. Through Medvedev's letter to Karzai - which, not by coincidence, comes as the United States and NATO are publicly criticizing Karzai for not doing enough to support the war effort against the Taliban - Russia is showcasing its influence in Afghanistan, as well as its goal of increasing cooperation with a regime in Kabul that is on shaky ground with the West. Russia has enough of a foothold in Afghanistan to make things difficult for Washington should the need arise. And the last thing the United States needs is for a hostile power like Russia, upon which it must rely for supply lines into Afghanistan, to cause more friction in a critical region at a time when Washington is desperately trying to reduce friction. Russia has issued a veiled threat for Obama to ponder in the early days of his presidency. It is a threat that deliberately lacks details about what the Russians can or plan to do in Afghanistan, but it will make Washington think twice about moves that would impede Moscow's resurgent path. For the moment, that is probably enough for Moscow to make its point in Washington.