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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42849)	1/21/2009 7:05:54 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

Gartner Dataquest (date of forecasts, % change worldwide semi equipment spending from previous year): 2009 forecasts: Jan 20 2009 -34% ($46.1B in 2008, $30.4B in 2009) Dec 19 2008 -34% Dec 18 2008 -31.7% Nov 10 2008 -18% Oct 16 2008 -13% Aug 20 2008 "modest BEE growth" May 06 2008 "mild recovery" 2010 forecasts: Jan 14 2009 +17.7% digitimes.com Dec 19 2008 "recovery in 2010" Nov 06 2008 "recovering in 2010" Oct 06 2008 "industry recovers in 2010" Message 25272934 gartner.com Recession indicators: date of trough or peak (so far, or my guess), indicator, value: Oct 2008, retail sales, max MOM decline, -3.4% Oct 2008, U.S. Stock Mutual Fund Withdrawals max, -44B$ Oct 24 2008, VIX max intraday, 89.53 Nov 21 2008, S&P 500 intraday lo, 741.02 Nov 21 2008, SOX intraday lo, 167.55 Nov 2008, non-farm payrolls, max monthly decline, 584,000 Dec and Nov 2008, consumer confidence min (Conf. Board and U. of Michigan), 38.0 and 55.3 Dec 2008, oil price min ($WTIC), $35 Dec 2008, industrial production, max YOY decline, -7.8% Dec 2008, manufacturing, ISM Purchasing Managers Index min, 32.4 ?? 2Q09, GDP min ?? 4Q09, unemployment max, ?? 9% online.wsj.com trimtabs.com 2009 EPS estimate changes: (from WSJ) date.........AMAT..MU..INTC..FSLR..QCOM 09/24/08 +0.95 -1.12 +1.47 +6.71 +2.65 10/21/08 +0.27 -1.19 +0.93 +6.71 +2.07 11/24/08 +0.27 -1.21 +0.92 +7.29 +2.07 12/24/08 +0.26 -1.41 +0.82 +7.07 +2.05 01/21/09 +0.20 -2.19 +0.48 +7.02 +2.03 FY ends... Oct.... Aug.. Dec.... Dec.. Sept my comments: 2 months without new lows in SPX, SOX. Gartner 2009 forecasts haven't fallen in a month, after sharp downward revisions in August to December. If 11/21/08 was the stock trough, the economic indicators should stop getting worse in Feb-June 2009 (3-7 month lag). Stock mutual fund withdrawals continue, at a smaller pace than the 11/08 max. As long as EPS estimates continue falling for AMAT's customer base, I see volatility and little upside for the semi-equips.