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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock and Bond Market-Timing: Can it be Done? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (108)	1/22/2009 4:02:46 PM
From: BFree	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3605

Boca asks "Are you a politician" LOLI would serve in no office to which I was elected because I would feel that my constituency was stupid beyond belief. I am sorry for assuming your toes were sore because I stepped on them when expressing my opinion that paying for Bob Brinker's marketiming newsletter was not very bright. Such action is not an IQ test, but it does come pretty close after watching Bob's moves the last couple years. Anyone predicting the future of the stock market these days ivites a fool to the shaving mirror every morning. Like people who chase stocks all the way down. Had a friend chase Lucent, also one of Bob's stocks he liked to brag about when it was high, buying it as it fell, knowing for sure that it was a lot cheaper than the last time he bought it. At 50 , 40, 30, 20 etc. The same goes for today's stock market. One can say "It's down so surely this is a buying opportunity", of course Bob has chased it with several buying opportunities all the way down like my freind did Lucent. The truth is that the price of the stock market will depend on who doesn't go broke and is even still in business and the earnings of those that are. Bob Brinker, nor anyone else has a clue as to what earnings are going to be in the 500 largest companies in the next year. For gosh sakes the government has spent a kings ransom and we only have two investment banks left and both are crippled and trying to become regular banks. We started last year with 5 such firms with 100 plus year track records. If Bob Brinker has joined the chartists trying to call short term bounces he should say so. To make long term calls about the health of a stock market in a country that just flipped adminsitrations and is in the midst of a crisis is somewhat precarious. Our new government has a wildly liberal leadership in congress that will require all the skills of herding cats for executive branch that has no REAL PLAN-but a bunch of unproven ideas and a willingness to throw money in any direction without regard for merit. We have been in panic mode since September. Nothing has cleared from the chaos and indeed some are now for the first time I've heard talking about nationalization of the banks-after squandering all the tarp money. If you look in vacation areas or have vacation property to rent, people are too afraid of their circumstances to spend. Since the consumer has held up our economy for many many years(some would say that was the problem and may be right) where is all of Bob's long term euphoria coming from? The answer is obviously, he's simply taking another shot along with as Boca mentioned many other technical trading sorts. Most of those claiming that we are due for a bounce see it as a trading bounce. One thing that gives us hope I heard this morning. The only time we had as big a decline as we had this time since election and swearing in our new president was 1933. The market was up 75% in 1933. Perhaps Bob got out his trader's almanac. More likely like most of us, just hoping like h*** that things work and the economy gets it's legs back under it, stocks go up and people go back to work. Making a big pronouncement like there is some sort of scientific basis involved though is total hubris. The jury is so far out on how this will end up, they are miles away from the courthouse. There is currently NO plan as to how to treat the banking crisis in this administration. They said today they are going to close Guantanamo to terrorist prisoners today and Obama turned around and ASKED an aid if he had another Presidential decree as to what the hel* they were going to do with prisoners there. The answer was negative. It's a gang now in charge with lots of hype and hope and absolutlely no plans and yet your boy Bobby has decided he knows this is a buying opportunity. Sure. :(