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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (9771)	10/23/1997 10:52:00 PM
From: BOGEY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

.....and with the problems in Asia the sky will certainly start falling soon......

To: craig crawford who wrote (9771)	10/24/1997 12:18:00 AM
From: Zoltan!	Respond to of 77400

>>Shall I go on? No, on present subject you've more than amply distinguished yourself as being invincibly ignorant. Surely no surprise there though. No doubt you'll continue to find a more credulous and receptive audience on the rapid Descend thread. There they apparently appreciate incendiaries, so much like their company's all too "hot" products. Unfortunately for their customers, they are the ones that wind up burnt. Regards

To: craig crawford who wrote (9771)	10/24/1997 9:16:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Respond to of 77400

Craig's got some good points. I have made a few points about cisco the company on this thread, but craig's comments are about the stock. Cisco, as the market leader is much more dependant on market growth. With the far eastern economies potentially falling into disarray, that could impact estimates on the margin. The stock still isn't super expensive and is trading below its growth rate, but it's a risk. There's also significant interest rate and market risk for the stock. it's a bellweather on the NASDAQ. Someone earlier on this thread said that 20% returns for the next several years would be boring. I suspect that's from an investor that's never seen a sustained bear market. Unfortunately, many investors expect the stock market to sustain it's recent growth patterns. TREES DON'T GROW TO THE SKY! Over time, equity returns will regress to the underlying growth of the companies driving those returns. We've had an improving inflation/economic/profit picture for several years. Downsizing improvements have been achieved. Labor shortages won't always drive inflation, but they could drive costs up and profits way down. BAAAD news for the market. Cisco does face a tyranny of size issue. Multiply current revenues by 1.35 to the 10th power, it's a scary number. (Cisco can sustain high growth for a little while if successful in eating into the voice infrastrucutre market, but the company faces powerful competition.) I doubt the justice department goes after cisco for at least the next 18 months. the company can site LU NT and other beg telco guys as competition, coms and other customer premise co's won't admit cisco's domination until the battle's completely lost. When a stock does well, people thiunk its going to the moon, when it does poorly people think its going under. That's psychology. If you don't want to take gains, consider writing covered calls. It generates income and provides some downside cushion and forces a sell discipline if necessary. TD