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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cluka who wrote (42908)	1/22/2009 7:19:08 PM
From: BWAC	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Fret, fret, worry, worry......did WFR have a bad quarter and guide down? Imagine that and in this business climate too? Shocking! Who oh who could have predicted the decline except the bestest and brightest of the investing world. While everybody keeps on focusing on what to sell and where the bottom is, I'll keep on focusing on what to buy, the ever merging of tangible book value and stock valuation into favorable ratios, and what the long term earnings stream can reasonably be. Where was the sell WFR mantra at $60 on the way up? And why is the oh my, get me out! NOW!!!! noise so high at $11? My position? 1000 @ $15. Less $6 of expired Call premium. Or $9. Tomorrows price? Who cares. Its all in the positioning for the next cycle at this point anyway. Plus the Feb Calls need to go to zero anyway. Business bad?...............never had a clue. But then again I'm not an Analyst. Thank goodness for Wall Street research.

To: cluka who wrote (42908)	1/22/2009 8:02:13 PM
From: EACarl	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95530

RE "they <WFR> will make money. 10, 20 or 30 cents is irrelevant at this point." Not gonna happen, you can forget the $.20+ Even 20 cents would require after tax net income of ~$45 million (~225 million shares outstanding). With the numbers they guided we're looking at GROSS profit of about ~$40 million. There's a lot expenses taken out after that point on the I/S. Plus interest income is only a few pennies per share per "Q". Besides, you can't expect to beat earnings estimates in an environment with declining fundamentals. Now, if you'd like to talk "recovery" earnings for 2010, and how much that might be, and when Wall Street will start discounting them, that's a different story. One thing for sure, WFR should be a traders delight, as there is a recipe for plenty of volatility.